Colliers Report Predicts Resilient Growth for U.S. Commercial Real Estate in 2026

The 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Report by Colliers highlights a renewed momentum in the U.S. real estate market, driven by stabilizing fundamentals, growing investor confidence, and easing financial conditions. This shift marks a potential turning point for the sector, with significant growth anticipated across various asset classes.

Colliers, a prominent entity in professional services and investment management, has published its 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Report, titled “Stability Through Uncertainty.” Released on December 3, 2025, the report provides a thorough analysis of market trends across major asset classes, identifying both opportunities and potential challenges for the coming year. As the U.S. commercial real estate market enters 2026, it is characterized by renewed momentum, driven by stabilizing fundamentals, easing financial conditions, and rising investor confidence.

Hospitality Sector Trends

The hospitality sector is experiencing increased demand for luxury and upscale accommodations, driven by high-income travelers. Despite rising operational costs, supply is expected to grow modestly by 1.3%. This trend underscores the hospitality sector’s resilience and adaptability in the current market environment.

Capital Markets and Office Sector

The report indicates a positive shift in capital markets, with improving conditions expected to drive 15-20% growth in transaction volume in 2026. Pricing stabilization and the return of investors are notable factors contributing to this rebound. In the office sector, vacancy rates are expected to decline from their 2025 peak to below 18% by the end of 2026. This improvement is attributed to increasing demand and the repurposing of obsolete inventory.

Industrial and Retail Sectors

The industrial sector is moving towards equilibrium, despite a 62% reduction in construction since 2022. Demand is rising across logistics, manufacturing, data centers, and R&D, with vacancy rates projected to peak near 7.6%. In the retail sector, disciplined development and robust tenant expansion activities are maintaining tight supply. A 37% decrease in construction is anticipated for 2026, supporting a modest rent growth of approximately 1.5%.

Multifamily and Data Centers

The multifamily sector is experiencing strong renter demand, driven by high home prices, which is expected to lead to occupancy gains in 2026. This trend sets the stage for improved rent growth in 2027 and 2028. Meanwhile, data centers are seeing a surge due to rapid enterprise AI adoption. Despite near-historic low vacancies, power constraints and community opposition are slowing new development.

Healthcare and Life Sciences

In healthcare, the shift towards decentralized care is boosting demand for medical office buildings (MOBs), outpatient facilities, and ambulatory care facilities. This trend has led to an occupancy rate of 92.5% in 2025. The life sciences sector is witnessing a recovery, with stabilizing valuations, onshoring, and a reduction in speculative development creating favorable leasing conditions, potentially leading to vacancy recovery in 2026.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Steig Seaward, Senior Director of National Research at Colliers, notes that 2026 marks a pivotal moment for U.S. commercial real estate. The industry is transitioning into a period characterized by greater clarity, confidence, and opportunity. Strengthening investor sentiment, broadening occupier demand, and disciplined development are reshaping the supply landscape. These dynamics signal not just a recovery but the beginning of a more resilient and adaptive cycle, positioning the sector for long-term growth.

Overall, the U.S. commercial real estate landscape is marked by stronger fundamentals, a healthier supply-demand balance, and a clearer path forward. Investors, occupiers, and developers are preparing to capitalize on this more stable environment, shaped by long-term demographic, technological, and consumer shifts.

Download the report.