COVID-19 vaccines: What to expect in the next few months | Canada Voices

QUESTION: We are now into the fifth year of COVID-19. What can we expect to happen with COVID vaccines in the coming months?

ANSWER: This year is already shaping up to be one of both change and uncertainty.

Federal health officials recently announced that Ottawa will no longer be purchasing COVID vaccines for the entire country. This task will shift to the provincial and territorial governments, which have traditionally been responsible for the delivery of health care services.

In some ways, this move was anticipated by the medical community, said Fahad Razak, an associate professor of medicine at the University of Toronto.

He noted that the major disruptions caused by the pandemic now appear to be behind us. There has not been a huge surge in COVID-related hospitalizations in the past two years.

“We can start to think of COVID as one of our ‘normal’ circulating viruses rather than something novel or unexpected,” said Dr. Razak, who is also an internal medicine physician at Toronto’s St. Michael’s Hospital.

“There are lots of people who feel this transition has to occur eventually and now is a reasonable time to start,” he said of the vaccine’s shift to provincial and territorial responsibility.

Even so, any administrative change naturally leads to uncertainty. “We don’t yet know what the provinces’ eligibility requirements are going to be for the vaccines and how they are going to roll them out,” said Susy Hota, the division head for infectious diseases at the University Health Network and Sinai Health in Toronto.

“Anything that can cause a hiccup in the access to vaccines is concerning to me.”

Meanwhile, the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI), which provides advice to the provincial and territorial ministries of health, released its COVID-vaccine guidance for 2025 and through to the summer of 2026.

The committee says most Canadians over the age of six months should be eligible for one annual COVID shot. However, individuals at risk of suffering severe illness from the virus – such as the immune compromised and those over 80 – should get two doses a year in recognition of the fact that vaccine protection wanes over time. The minimum interval between these shots should be three months.

Of course, it’s up to the provinces and territories to either accept or reject NACI’s recommendations.

Some experts are already warning that a single shot a year may not be enough because COVID doesn’t follow a clear seasonal pattern like influenza, which primarily circulates in late fall and early winter.

“You can get infected with COVID any time of the year,” said Dawn Bowdish, a professor of medicine at McMaster University in Hamilton.

“There is a misconception, even among some healthcare workers, that we get one flu shot a year because it provides 12 months of protection,” said Dr. Bowdish.

“But the truth is we get the strongest protection for the first three months and intermediate protection for the next three months. Because the flu season lasts only six months, we can rely on one shot a year.”

She noted that most countries in the northern hemisphere have been hit with between two and four COVID waves a year. Each wave is partly fuelled by new viral variants that can evade existing immunity acquired from previous vaccines and infections.

“There are effectively multiple COVID seasons each year,” she said. “So, should we be getting multiple COVID shots?”

In general, for the first three months after getting a COVID vaccine your chances of catching a symptomatic infection are reduced by up to 50 per cent, said Dr. Bowdish. And, for six to nine months you’re less likely to become severely ill if you do get infected, she added.

Dr. Razak said an annual COVID vaccine campaign would need to be carefully timed to provide maximum protection to the population. That means delivering the shots just before most people could potentially be exposed to the virus.

Some provinces and territories may decide to provide COVID shots along with flu doses, he speculated. That approach would be economically efficient. It may also help reduce pressure on health care systems during winter months when there is usually a spike in activity from other respiratory illnesses.

“But if there is evidence of a large COVID wave happening in the summer, they may decide to offer additional vaccinations.”

Most experts agree that COVID shots need to be managed like other vaccines that have regular immunization cycles and familiar procedures.

However, Dr. Bowdish acknowledges “this is going to be really difficult because we can’t predict when the waves are going to come.” In the end, the provinces and territories may go their separate ways and adopt different policies, she added.

Paul Taylor is a former Patient Navigation Adviser at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre and former health editor of The Globe and Mail.