Toronto-based content creator Kate O’Brien on May 3.Sammy Kogan/The Globe and Mail
Forget the lipstick index. Kate O’Brien’s most-watched TikTok video shows the 28-year-old content creator using a toothpaste squeezer to extract every last ounce of everything from hand cream and retinol to actual toothpaste.
Its popularity may be sending a message about how women are feeling with respect to their finances right now.
“Anything I could squeeze out, I would,” said Toronto-based Ms. O’Brien. “Just to really get that extra week’s worth of product, because if it’s going to cost you $40 for a moisturizer now, why not get every last drop?”
The clip has garnered 70 million views across her social channels and three million likes. The top comment, “hearted” by thousands, reads, “If this is not a recession indicator, I don’t know what it is.”
Women’s beauty and fashion trends have long been touted as economic barometers. After lipstick sales soared during the 2001 dot-com recession, Leonard Lauder, chairman emeritus of cosmetics company Estée Lauder, coined the phrase “the lipstick index,” suggesting that consumers find solace in small luxuries during economic downturns.
Nail polish sales surged after the 2008 financial crisis. And prior to that, the hemline index theory coined by economist George Taylor in 1926 held that women’s skirt lengths were an indicator of economic stability.
Today, these beauty indicators are partly brought to light through social media where searches for “dupes” – aka duplicates of high-end goods – have been soaring. Queries for press-on nails were up 25 per cent year-over-year in April on Google trends, and “recession blonde” – a low-maintenance hair colour that sees grown-out roots blended into dyed hair – surged as a relatively new search term.
O’Brien showcases a budget tube squeezer. One of her videos demonstrating this product, aimed at extracting more product out of cosmetics and toothpaste, has garnered millions of views across social media.Sammy Kogan/The Globe and Mail
Social-media users, and women in particular, have been drawn to content like Ms. O’Brien’s, which focuses on budget beauty, multi-use products and deals. It comes as the Conference Board of Canada’s consumer confidence indicator dropped 8.4 points to an all-time low in March.
Some studies suggest that when confidence drops, it falls further for women, who already tend to be more pessimistic about the economy.
Bank of Montreal’s 2024 Real Financial Progress Index, for example, found that Canadian women were 12 per cent more inclined than men to feel increasingly concerned about inflation and the rising cost of living.
“Women are much more likely than men to be playing that role of a caregiver,” said Tammy Schirle, an economics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University. Because of this, they also tend to do most of the household shopping in couples and families, giving them a unique perspective on price fluctuations.
Signs of women pulling back on discretionary expenses, from shopping for clothes to fitness and skincare, are everywhere.
An April consumer survey from financial services firm Stifel, which assessed spending intentions for Canadians over the next 12 months, found that spending plans remained in expansionary mode for men, with 57 per cent planning to spend more compared with 43 per cent of female respondents.
The survey found women intend to shift away from some premium and mid-market clothing retailers, with the number planning to shop at Aritzia – known for its “everyday luxury” apparel – dropping to 21 per cent, down 4 per cent since January, 2024.
On the other hand, 27 per cent of respondents planned to shop at Garage, a clothing store where the most expensive items are well under $100, up from 16 per cent in January, 2024. And there was a sharp spike in market share for online retailer Shein, with 44 per cent planning to shop there.
O’Brien herself began experimenting with the budget beauty hacks she promotes on her channel as a way to deal with Toronto’s high cost of living, and pass time during the COVID-19 pandemic.Sammy Kogan/The Globe and Mail
Beyond discount retailers, women and young people are increasingly turning to dupes at a time of economic headwinds and concerns over higher prices from a U.S. trade war that is threatening to disrupt global supply chains.
“Growing up, that was the big thing – getting those monogrammed bags for $6,000,” said Ms. O’Brien, the content creator. “People are really starting to devalue designer brands.”
Instead, Ms. O’Brien said her peers obsess over multifunctional products.
“They just want the moisturizer that’s gonna do it all … a blush that’s also a lip tint,” she said. “At-home hair, gel nails, at-home brow lamination – those are also becoming really popular.”
Ms. O’Brien herself began experimenting with the budget beauty hacks she promotes on her channel as a way to deal with Toronto’s high cost of living, and pass time during the COVID-19 pandemic.
She learned to do her own wedding makeup, saving about $700 between the trial service, travel fees and day-of service. She also started dabbling in at-home nail extensions.
“I normally would go to the salon, and now that’s quickly become $130 every three weeks,” she said, adding that she’s significantly cut back on this discretionary purchase.
But shaving expenses and swapping high-end goods for knockoffs can only go so far if the economy is truly headed for a recession.
With women living longer on average than men and taking more career breaks because of caregiving duties, it’s important to resist the urge to pause long-term investments during economic swings if possible and maximize contributions in high-earning years, said Laurie-Anne King, CEO at Dow Janes, a financial education platform for women.
She recommends taking those spending savings and keep “paying yourself first.” Ms. King advises against halting contributions to savings or investment accounts unless absolutely necessary and bulking up that emergency fund in a separate online bank where it’s out of sight, out of mind.
Since women with unpredictable income or unstable employment during economic swings might find it harder to budget and save, it also helps to reframe the situation, said Ms. King.
“Think of yourself as an employee of your business,” she said. Build up a buffer for the highs and lows your “business” goes through, “then pay yourself a consistent salary each month – that consistency gives you stability even when business income fluctuates.”
