According to the IATA’s data, total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 3.2% compared to January 2024 levels. This growth was 3.6% for international operations. In terms of capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), there was an increase of 6.8% compared to January 2024, with international operations seeing a 7.3% increase.
Despite recording 18 consecutive months of growth, air cargo’s year-on-year growth of 3.2% in January marked a moderation from the double-digit peaks seen in 2024. Cargo load factors declined by an average of 1.5 percentage points, and yields, which were still above January 2024 levels, saw a 9.9% decline from December.
Several external factors have contributed to the growth of the air cargo market. Industrial production rose 2.6% year-on-year in December. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output indicated growth, with a reading of 50.62, the highest since July 2024. In addition, global goods trade grew for a ninth consecutive month, reporting a 3.3% increase in December.
However, the potential for tariff-driven trade policies from the US Trump Administration creates uncertainty in the market. Regardless, the air cargo industry’s experience in dealing with shifts in the operating environment is expected to help navigate these potential changes.
In terms of regional performance, Asia-Pacific airlines saw the highest year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in January at 7.5%. Latin American carriers followed with an 11.2% year-on-year increase. North American carriers saw a 5.3% increase, while European carriers experienced a more modest 1.3% growth. Conversely, Middle Eastern carriers saw an 8.4% year-on-year decrease in demand, the slowest among the regions, and African airlines saw a 3.4% decrease.
Most international routes experienced growth in January, with airlines benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.
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