A new poll by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) indicates that recent US government actions may significantly decrease the business travel volume by 2025, negatively impacting the sector’s revenue and optimism.
In light of recent US government policies, including tariffs, cross-border policies, and entry restrictions, global business travel professionals face an uncertain and intricate landscape. This is especially true regarding the potential impact on business travel volume, spending, and revenue by 2025. This information comes from a new poll conducted by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), which has noted a significant decrease in optimism among industry respondents and an anticipated decline in business travel.
The GBTA poll defines recent US government actions as tariffs on imported products, entry restrictions for travelers from specific countries, advisories against travel to the US, cross-border policies leading to detainment risks, and reduced business travel for US federal employees. The poll revealed that less than half of global buyers (44%) anticipate no impact on their organization’s business travel spending and volume by 2025, while only 25% of travel suppliers expect the same for their business travel revenue.
The poll also reveals that 29% of global travel buyers expect a decline in business travel volume at their companies by 2025, anticipating an average decrease of 21%. Additionally, 27% of buyers predict a 20% average decrease in business travel spending for the year. With global business travel spending forecast to reach USD 1.63 trillion in 2025, this could represent a potential decline in spending of up to $88 billion.
Furthermore, 37% of travel suppliers and travel management company (TMC) professionals predict an average decrease of 18% in related revenue. These figures have contributed to a decrease in optimism, with only 31% of global industry professionals remaining optimistic about the overall industry outlook for the year, a significant decline from the 67% reported in GBTA’s November 2024 poll.
Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA, states that two key factors could influence the longer-term impact on business travel: sustained economic pressure or uncertainty on company budgets, and restrictions on cross-border travel and global workforce mobility to and from the US.
Additional key findings include that 7% of buyer organizations have revised their corporate travel policies for travel to or from the US since January 2025, and 25% say they plan to or will consider doing so. Up to 20% have or are considering cancelling, moving, or pulling attendance from meetings and events in the US. Lastly, respondents’ top concerns for the long-term impact of US government actions are related to increased business travel costs (54%) and potential budget cuts (40%), along with additional travel processing needs such as visas or documentation (46%).
The GBTA poll reflects the responses of travel managers (buyers), suppliers, travel management companies, and other travel intermediaries from four regions and 45 countries. The poll was conducted from March 31 to April 8, 2025, and 905 responses were received.
View the complete GBTA poll results and key highlights.
