GTA 6 chaos, Steam Machine impact, and more

Every year, the video game industry gets a little harder to predict. With mass layoffs that upend studios and leave major games canceled, you never really know how exactly a year is going to shake out anymore. Remember when Embracer Group seemed poised to become one of the big four publishers in 2023? Whoops.

Even with that level of constant chaos, you can still get a sense of where things are headed in 2026 coming off a rough year for the industry. New hardware will make an impact, Grand Theft Auto 6 will leave a mark whether it actually launches or not, and politics will continue to dictate how accessible gaming is. With all that in mind, we’ve got six big picture predictions that should give you an idea of what to expect in an uncertain year.

Gaming gets even more expensive

Now that the dust has settled on 2025, it’s safe to say that affordability was the biggest gaming story of last year. Games started reaching the $80 mark, Game Pass became an even pricier proposition, and the cost of PC parts skyrocketed. Even Nintendo’s historically cost-effective approach to hardware changed with the Switch 2’s $449.99 price tag. There were a lot of compounding reasons for that trend, but one of the biggest was a flood of erratically imposed tariffs at the hands of a second Trump administration.

If you’re hoping that prices will come down in 2026, you’re in for a rude awakening. Hardware prices are only likely to rise as tariffs continue to be passed down to consumers. Don’t be surprised if the Nintendo Switch 2 costs $50 or even $100 more sometime this year now that Nintendo has pulled in enough early adopters to get its life cycle moving. As for PC parts, you better start saving three years ago. The continued rise of AI led to price hikes across tech last year, and that’s only bound to get worse as companies like Nvidia try to push the momentum.

And games themselves aren’t likely to get any less expensive either. Grand Theft Auto 6 seems like it’s poised to push how much games will cost, potentially daring to reach the $100 mark. It will likely break records no matter how much it costs, instilling confidence in some of gaming’s biggest publishers. No matter how you look at it, prices aren’t going to come down. Your best hope is that they stay stable.

The generative AI war gets even uglier

Image: AstroBeam

2026 has barely taken its first breath, but it’s already clear what the loudest gaming trend of the year is going to be: generative AI. After years of flirting with the tech, many leaders across gaming companies seem ready to go all out this year. Executives at Larian Studios, CD Projekt Red, and more haven’t been shy about how they are adopting the tech into their studios’ workflows already, and companies like Ubisoft and EA have teased big plans. This will likely be remembered as the year gaming companies go all in on generative AI.

It will also be remembered as the year when everyone hated that. Despite high adoption rates of generative AI tools, the tech remains a sore spot for many players. Its use lost Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 two awards and turned players against the once-beloved Larian in an instant. Don’t expect that backlash to stop anytime soon; the battle for the soul of the art form is only going to get louder. Social media accounts will catalog AI usage, boycotts will no doubt crop up, misinformation will spread, and some studios will inevitably walk back their aspirations for the tech amid resistance. We saw it all happen at the peak of the NFT craze, and it will happen again here.

Grand Theft Auto 6 makes for a weird release date schedule

Image: Rockstar Games

2026 is going to be defined by Grand Theft Auto 6 — whether or not it actually comes out. There are dozens of obvious predictions I could make built around its expected sales or cultural impact, but its more interesting side effect will be how it radically changes the video game release calendar we’re used to. Usually, we start with a slow January for games, transition into a busy spring, slow down in the summer, and land in a crowded fall as companies try to get their biggest games out for the holidays. Expect that to change big time.

With Grand Theft Auto 6 currently scheduled to release on Nov. 19, publishers know exactly what launch windows they have to avoid. November and December are going to become a cultural black hole as the entire gaming world is consumed by one game. Don’t expect a massive influx of games around the holidays unless they’re serving a completely different audience. (Ten bucks says Nintendo doubles down on kids games in that month rather than shy away from the season altogether.) We’ll likely see a much busier August and September instead as companies try to space their games out from GTA 6 as much as possible, or simply delay them to early 2027.

And if GTA 6 itself gets delayed into 2027? Expect all hell to break loose as studios move heaven and Earth to fill that void.

Valve changes the way we play games, again, with the Steam Machine

Image: Valve

With the Switch 2 out and the next generation of consoles still a few years off, 2026 isn’t going to be a huge year for shiny new hardware — or, at least, it wouldn’t be if Valve didn’t have plans to upend the traditional gaming hardware cycle as we know it. This year, Valve will take a major swing towards the console space with the Steam Machine. Though it’s technically a mini PC, the black box will essentially fill the role of a home console for casual players thanks to SteamOS.

Will the Steam Machine break into the mainstream consciousness and jump over PlayStation 5 to become the must-own console? No, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t fundamentally alter the hardware market on the edges. We know that Valve is capable of leading a tech innovation wave thanks to the Steam Deck. Though the handheld isn’t as popular as the Switch 2, it still pushed hardware makers like Asus and Lenovo to explore the handheld PC space and usher in a new golden age of portability. The Steam Machine is poised to do the same for home consoles. Even if copycats don’t release in 2026, expect to hear rumblings of more console-PCs by the end of the year as Valve successfully finds a way to bridge the gap between two gaming worlds.

Nintendo doubles down on niche

Image: Nintendo/Koei Tecmo

We knew that the Switch 2 would be a success in 2025. What we didn’t know was that Nintendo would pull that off without leaning on its heaviest hitters. Rather than following its 2017 playbook and loading the Switch 2’s first-year lineup with Mario and Zelda, Nintendo made some major swerves. Donkey Kong replaced Mario as a launch-window mascot, Pokémon got an experimental reinvention, and Nintendo’s big holiday game was a sequel to a notorious GameCube game that reviewed terribly in 2003. Don’t expect that energy to change in 2026. In fact, expect it to blossom.

We already know that Nintendo has an eclectic year planned. Tomodachi Life and Rhythm Heaven are returning, Splatoon is getting a survival spinoff, we’re getting a Pokémon life sim in which a Ditto gets into some real body horror, and the only new Mario game currently confirmed is Mario Tennis Fever. Fire Emblem: Fortune’s Weave currently stands as the Switch 2’s only reliable tentpole release slated for 2026. One or two more major games will likely come — expect something Mario-related to capitalize on The Super Mario Galaxy Movie — but be prepared for a Nintendo that’s very confident in its ability to sell a ham sandwich on Switch 2.

PS5’s stock rises, Xbox’s hits rock bottom

Graphic: Grant Walkup/Polygon | Source images: Sony; Microsoft

It’s hard to believe, but 2026 will bring us into the late stages of the current console generation that began in 2020. Modern console cycles tend to last seven to eight years, so we could be looking at our last full years with the PS5 or Xbox Series X. The power dynamics between Sony and Microsoft will be crucial to watch, as they’ll define who heads into the next generation with confidence, and who will have to fight from behind.

Of the two, Sony seems like it will have momentum in its favor this year. After a somewhat quiet 2026, PS5 owners should get some major exclusives this year thanks to Saros and, more crucially, Marvel’s Wolverine. Insomniac’s latest superhero game could stand to give PS5 a major exclusive at a time when Xbox is going all-in on multiplatform games. We don’t know much about what Sony has in store for first-party games beyond those two heavy hitters, but rumors of a God of War spinoff have been swirling. If that comes to fruition, Sony could have the holy trinity it needs to keep the PS5 relevant.

The future for Xbox feels much less healthy. While the Series X got a flood of solid first-party support in 2025 (including three games from Obsidian Entertainment), it was a dire year for Microsoft’s gaming brand. Many developers got laid off, studios were shut down, tentpole games like Perfect Dark got canceled, hardware sales struggled, and the brand faced boycotts over the role Microsoft currently plays in Israel’s war on Gaza. With a reported internal push for Xbox to raise profit margins by 30%, the brand’s woes are only likely to worsen as prices remain high and good will remains low. Games like Forza Horizon 6 and Gears of War: E-Day could win some players back, but with no release dates set in stone, there’s no telling what games will actually be released this year — especially after Xbox canceled two big ones and closed down one of its studios, The Initiative. Expect to see more remakes like Halo: Campaign Evolved as Xbox pulls out some quick tricks to stop the bleed until its next console cycle.

Bonus Prediction: The Dreamcast 2 shocks the world

Yeah, you wish, buddy!