California was just hit by a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, causing many in Vancouver to go on high alert.
The West Coast is in Canada’s most earthquake-prone region, and a recent report revealed what would happen if it were to get struck by a significant quake. The findings were devastating, predicting over a thousand deaths or seriously injured people, billions in financial losses, and thousands of displaced people.
The detailed report, given to the Vancouver City Council in November, outlines the potential impact a 7.2-magnitude earthquake would have on the city and possible risk reduction strategies.
Many who live on the West Coast are already aware of the threat of a major earthquake, but the report breaks down what it would really mean for the city. Although it is impossible to predict exactly when it could hit, the lore of “The Big One” striking the region is something top of mind for many.
The report detailed the serious risks to Vancouver residents’ lives and safety and to the city’s ability to recover from a major earthquake.
What are the chances of a major earthquake in Vancouver?
In the report, they used modelling software to predict what would happen if a 7.2 magnitude earthquake were to hit the Georgia Strait. This isn’t a far-off estimation, as the report said that the chances of a “very strong” earthquake happening in the next 50 years are one in five, according to Natural Resources Canada.
“Both federal and City risk assessments, including the City’s updated Hazard, Risk, and Vulnerability Analysis, have identified earthquakes as a top risk to both public safety and the economy,” the report added.
What would happen if a 7.2 earthquake hit the Georgia Strait?
Modelling from the report showed that a major earthquake could be highly damaging to the city, resulting in “6,100 heavily damaged buildings, as many as 1,350 severe injuries and fatalities, the disruption and displacement of over one-third of residents and workers for more than three months, and over $17B in direct financial losses.”
Even a smaller earthquake could result in up to 25,000 displaced for over three months and 200 deaths or severe injuries.
One of the primary risks highlighted in the report was the city’s infrastructure. “A significant outstanding gap in the City’s seismic preparedness efforts is the city’s stock of highly vulnerable and aging existing private buildings,” it said.
A small portion of the city’s buildings accounts for 80% of the city’s “seismic risk.” Among various factors, the report pointed to age as a main risk. “We know from modelling and engineering expertise that buildings built prior to early modern seismic design requirements (1990) and, even more critically, buildings built prior to the introduction of seismic design requirements (1973) are at the highest risk of heavy damage resulting in casualties and longterm occupant disruption and displacement,” it said.
These at-risk buildings are also mostly used for housing rentals, businesses, and downtown offices and are concentrated in certain areas. In addition, they are often more affordable in the city, as a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation survey found that “average rents in Vancouver for units built pre-1960 are approximately 35% less than rents for units built from 2015 onwards.”
This, in turn, puts renters of these buildings at more risk.
Vancouver’s most at-risk neighbourhoods
The report highlighted the most at-risk neighbourhoods in the city, finding that the West End, the Downtown Eastside (including Chinatown, Strathcona), Downtown, Kitsilano, Fairview, and Mount Pleasant are the six highest-risk.
On average, in these neighbourhoods, “nearly 70% of the population are renters. Among these renters, nearly 20% are low-income, over 10% are seniors, 30% identify as visible minorities and 4% are Indigenous Peoples.”
“Given the additional housing affordability challenges and barriers these residents may face, many residents who face the most barriers to recovery from an earthquake currently live in the most at-risk buildings in the highest-risk areas,” the report added.
The report concluded that “a large earthquake is one of the most significant risks to public safety Vancouver faces, but it is a risk that is well understood following detailed risk assessment and analysis.”
It recommended that the city take small sections to reduce the risk, focusing on “several areas of the city and several specific types of buildings, notably concrete mid- and high-rise multiunit residential buildings, URM and wood multiunit residential buildings, and URM, wood, and low-rise concrete commercial buildings.”
