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An LCBO sign at the Spadina and Front Street location in Toronto, Ontario.Carlos Osorio /The Globe and Mail

When Ontario Premier Doug Ford suggested banning American booze from LCBO outlets in response to U.S. President Trump’s promised tariffs on Canadian goods, he overestimated the buying power of the provincial monopoly.

“We are the largest purchaser of alcohol in the entire world. They will feel the pain,” he said Monday, repeating the widely held belief that the LCBO is the most powerful single buyer of alcohol on the planet. The claim has been made in industry reports and business publications for the 26 years I have been reporting on the wine business – but is it true?

Having control of the alcohol market in Ontario makes the LCBO one of the largest buyers of alcohol globally, but it has been decades since the LCBO could claim to take the top spot – if ever.

In today’s landscape, Costco’s empire of warehouse stores spread across the United States is often ranked as the largest retailer of wine and spirits in the world, with access to a larger consumer population with higher per capita consumption rates than the LCBO.

Independent retailer Total Wine and Walmart and Target superstores are also major players in the United States, the latter two’s sales volumes benefiting from the popularity of ready-to-drink cocktail brands like White Claw, Truly and High Noon.

Nearly 20 years ago, British wine writer Jancis Robinson questioned the LCBO’s top dog status.

“I must have been told at least eight times on my last short visit that the Liquor Control Board of Ontario, the monopoly that retails alcoholic drinks in Canada’s most populous province, is the world’s largest single buyer of wine,” she wrote in her January 2007 Financial Times column.

Robinson doubted the numbers even then, suggesting that British supermarket Tesco’s share of the retail wine market in a country with a greater population which, at the time, drank twice as much wine as Canadians, would require higher volumes to meet demand.

Even without sitting in the No. 1 position, a LCBO-led boycott of American wine and spirits would be a cause for concern – especially, if need be, other provinces chose to retaliate with Premier Ford’s tactic. Canada is the top destination for American wine and spirits, with Ontario being the largest buyer. American whiskey producers and Californian wineries would lose access to their best international market.

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