Liberal, Conservative supporters ‘gridlocked’ in voting intentions: poll – National

Liberal and Conservative supporters are newly at a standstill in their voting intentions in Canada, a new poll released Monday appears to show.

This “statistical tie” came after a surge in support for the Conservative Party last fall following the election of Pierre Polivre as party leader in September 2022, according to a Global News exclusive. according to an Ipsos poll.

Since the 2019 election, when Canadians elected the Liberal minority government, the results of these heads-and-heads have been fairly constant, so voting intent is back in familiar territory.

“It’s just polling groundhog day.

“What the results show is that the Tories have lost the slight edge they gained when they promoted Pierre Polivre to leadership last fall. The Liberals and Conservatives are basically reunited. there is,” he said.

That means that if there is a general election tomorrow, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will win 33% of the vote, equal to Poirivre’s Conservatives, polls suggest.

In the 2019 elections, neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives reached the threshold of 170 seats required for a majority government.

Opinion polls show Jagmeet Singh’s NDP with 18% support, Yves-Francois Blanchet and Bloc Quebecois with 7%, reaching 30% in Quebec.

Opinion polls suggested the Greens would have 4% support under the new leadership of Elizabeth May, who was jointly elected leader of the party with 32-year-old Jonathan Pedno last November.

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Maxime Bernier and the Canadian People’s Party had 3% support, but the poll revealed that 1% of respondents said they would vote for another party.

About 1 in 10 people aren’t sure who they’re voting for in the next federal election, and 7% say they won’t vote or won’t ruin the vote.

While it’s “impossible” to predict politics, Bricker said, “it’s difficult to understand how these numbers will change unless something really significant changes.” .

“The numbers are really locked. Over the last four or five years, we’ve had calamities and they haven’t really moved that far,” he said.

Demographically, trends are also reflected in age group and gender polls.

Opinion polls showed liberals had equal support among men and women, with conservatives leading more men than women.

Liberal support is evenly spread across age groups, but Conservative loyalty rises with age and is stronger among those with higher incomes.

“What we tend to see is a pretty typical pattern when it comes to numbers,” says Bricker.

“If you want to find a Conservative, find someone who is more likely to be male, older, and making more money. I have.”

The Conservatives also tend to lead in western Ontario provinces, with polls suggesting that the Liberals have a slight lead over the Tories in Ontario, and that they maintain their lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. rice field.

“Canada is really the story of two different regions,” says Bricker.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos survey conducted between 15-17 February 2023 on behalf of Global News. A sample of 1,350 Canadians aged 18 and over were interviewed for this study. Allocations and weightings were employed so that the composition of the sample reflected the composition of the Canadian population according to census parameters. Accuracy of Ipsos online surveys is measured using confidence intervals.In this case the vote is accurate within the range ±All Canadians over the age of 18 were surveyed 3.1 percentage points, 19 out of 20. Confidence intervals are widened across subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls are subject to other errors, including but not limited to coverage errors and measurement errors.

© 2023 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.