The Liberals are projected to win Canada’s 2025 federal election, giving Mark Carney his first election victory — but not the majority many in the party had hoped for.
According to CTV News, Carney, who took over as leader of the Liberal party after former prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned last month, is projected to form a minority government. The 60-year-old is also expected to win his riding of Nepean, Ontario.
As of 10:15 p.m. ET, the Liberals are leading with around 160 seats, enough to beat out the Conservatives but still short of the 172 seats needed for a majority. In total, there are 343 seats up for grabs in the House of Commons, and any party needs at least 172 to govern without needing support from others.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are set to form the Official Opposition after a strong showing in provinces like Saskatchewan and Alberta. They are projected to win about 40% of the votes.
As of now, it’s still too early to say whether Poilievre will hold onto his seat in Carleton, Ontario.
Several other party leaders are also in tight races, including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in Burnaby Central and Green Party co-leaders Elizabeth May in Saanich–Gulf Islands and Jonathan Pedneault in Outremont.
Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, meanwhile, is expected to win comfortably in his Beloeil–Chambly riding.
This election will mark Canada’s fourth straight Liberal minority government, meaning Carney will have to negotiate across party lines to get major legislation passed, and will need to hold onto the confidence of the House to stay in power.
Congratulatory social media messages from politicians across Canada have already started pouring in, including a post from Montreal mayor Valérie Plante.
Final seat counts and voter turnout numbers are still coming in. Verification by Elections Canada is still underway, with official results expected later this week.
