Ontario’s fall season is off to a balmy start, with temperatures remaining in the mid-20s across much of the province. But how long will the comfortable conditions last before the arrival of sweater weather and the ensuing deep freeze?
It looks like it may be a smoother-than-normal ride for Ontario in the coming months, at least according to the latest projections from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
The government weather agency has shared its forecast covering the period from October through December, offering a glimpse at how the next few months of weather may unfold.
Ontario can expect a high chance of above-normal temperatures during this period, with ECCC predicting that a large swath of the province will experience warmer weather than normal for this time of year.
Toronto has the highest chance to stretch out outdoor activities, with a 75 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures from October through December.
Ottawa is not far behind at 73 per cent, and even areas further north, like Thunder Bay, are projected at a 68 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
As for precipitation, ECCC’s current predictions for Ontario mostly fall within the normal range, though there is some chance that the province may experience above-average rain and snowfall to close out the year.
Toronto is projected to see a 34 per cent chance of normal precipitation levels in October through December, and a slightly higher 36 per cent chance of above-average precipitation.
Between the above-average temperatures and current projections for overall precipitation, there’s a chance that Ontario may escape the year with minimal snowfall.
ECCC predicts that Ontario’s snow water equivalent (which represents the depth of water that would cover the ground if the snow was in liquid form) to be below-average during the period stretching from October through December.
According to ECCC, Toronto is currently 57 per cent likely to see below-average snow water equivalent for the fourth quarter of the year, compared to just a 15 per cent chance of above-average snow water equivalent.
Thunder Bay has a 77 per cent chance of seing below-average snow water equivalent in the coming months, while Ottawa has a 53 per cent chance of below-normal snow water equivalent.
