Quebec's summer 2026 forecast is out and July could break heat records

Quebec’s never-ending winter is barely behind us, and we’re already talking about the summer — because if the latest forecasts are right, you’re going to want to be prepared.

The Canadian Farmer’s Almanac has released its detailed summer 2026 predictions for southern Quebec, and it looks like it’s going to be a hot one. The Almanac, which has been publishing long-range forecasts for over 200 years, bases its predictions on a combination of solar activity, climatology and meteorological patterns. July in particular could break heat records, with two stretches of intense heat bookending the month and very little relief in between.

The broader picture has to do with El Niño, a weather phenomenon driven by warmer-than-usual surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. MétéoMédia describes it as a “thermal amplifier on a planetary scale.” During the last El Niño episode, it contributed to 13 consecutive months of global heat records across the globe.

Here’s what the Almanac is predicting week by week:

June

Total precipitation is expected to come in about 35 mm above average for the month. The first half of June will be unsettled, with rain and occasional sunny breaks before things start to heat up.

• June 1–8: An unstable start, with intermittent rain and some clearing.
• June 9–11: Thunderstorms roll in and the heat begins to build.
• June 12–15: Sun takes over and temperatures climb.
• June 16–23: Rain returns before sunny spells win out by the end of the stretch.
• June 24–30: Storms give way to surging heat.

Late June is expected to be very warm and sets the tone for what July has in store.

July

July is shaping up to be the standout month of the summer. Precipitation will be below normal in the east and above normal in the west.

• July 1–6: A few storms to open the month, then the sun returns.
• July 7–11: Another wave of storms sweeps through
• . July 12–15: Storms and heat gradually settle back in.
• July 16–23: Sun dominates with a few passing storms.
• July 24–26: Temperatures surge again, with clear skies and oppressive heat.
• July 27–31: The month closes very hot across the board, with storms in the west to cap things off.

August

August carries the summer heat forward, with frequent storms and one particularly intense stretch mid-month. Precipitation will be slightly below normal in the east and near average in the west.

• Aug 1–11: The month opens warm.
• Aug 12–16: Sunny and very hot.
• Aug 17–22: Storms move in before clearing, with heat sticking around.
• Aug 23–31: Summer winds down with a stormy, hot finish and one last heat push before September takes over.

This story was adapted from the article,”Prévisions météo de l’été 2026: Des records de chaleur pourraient être battus au Québec,” which was originally published on Narcity Quebec.