Quebec’s winter weather forecast for 2024-2025 is out and the predictions are chaotic

As autumn settles across Quebec, many of us are starting to think ahead to winter and wonder what the weather has in store. Well, Quebec’s winter weather forecast for 2024-2025 is out, and it looks like we’re in for a rough season.

The cold, hard truth is that we might not even have to wait for winter to feel the chill. Bleak predictions for the month of October indicate that temperatures could drop rapidly and abruptly as November approaches. In fact, we could soon get hit with an early snowstorm as long-lasting cold sets in throughout the province.

According to MétéoMédia’s “preliminary analysis of what winter 2024-2025 should look like,” published on October 8, there are two potential scenarios for the season. But either way, winter is expected to kick off with a bang in December.

“Some indications suggest that winter will set in more strongly than in recent years. Cold and snow have often been a long time coming, but this year will be different,” says meteorologist Réjean Ouimet in MétéoMédia’s article. “The last cold December we had in Quebec was back in 2018.”

So, will it be a mild winter or a frigid one? That’s the million-dollar question! Much hinges on La Niña, a natural climate pattern characterized by the abnormal cooling of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean near the equator.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niña could emerge in one of two locations: either near the South American coast or in the central Pacific. Each option carries different implications for Quebec’s weather this winter.

“One scenario suggests that the cold will be centred west of the Great Lakes, mainly affecting Western Canada,” explains Ouimet. “The return flow from the southwest would favour milder weather in Quebec.”

In this scenario, while it would still be cold and snowy, we’d likely see less frequent and less intense Arctic air outbreaks, resulting in an overall milder winter.

On the flip side, if “La Niña gets stuck in the eastern Pacific,” Ouimet continues, “the cold air axis shifts to include our regions.” This would lead to a much harsher winter.

“While La Niña leans toward a mild winter or a cold winter, the nature of the precipitation remains to be seen. If Arctic air descends frequently next season, we’ll see plenty of snow. Otherwise, we can expect a mix of rain, snow, ice, and sleet,” says Ouimet.

On a brighter note, even if we’re facing a cold winter, there will still be some mild spells and near-normal temperatures, according to the meteorologist.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast also hints that snow could arrive sooner than we expect, with slush potentially making its debut as early as November 8 and more heavy precipitation likely around November 16, especially in the Laurentians.

So, take advantage of the pleasant weather while it lasts because winter is right around the corner!

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This story was adapted from the article “Les prévisions de l’hiver 2024-2025 au Québec sont sorties et ça s’annonce chaotique,” which was originally published on Narcity Québec by Josianne Desjardins.