Rising Antipathy Turns Travelers Away

The United States is projected to witness a significant decline in foreign tourist arrivals and spending by 2025, largely attributed to President Donald Trump’s stringent policies and a stronger dollar.

The U.S. tourism industry is currently facing a potentially grim future, with forecasted decreases in foreign tourist arrivals and spending. President Donald Trump’s administration’s policies, coupled with a stronger dollar, are cited as the main reasons for this downturn.

Tourism Economics, a subsidiary of Oxford Economics, released a report last month predicting a 5.1 percent decline in foreign traveler arrivals in the United States by 2025 compared to last year. This contrasts with a previously anticipated increase of 8.8 percent. Additionally, foreign tourist spending is expected to decrease by 10.9 percent.

President of Tourism Economics Adam Sacks opined that the situation has only worsened since the report’s publication, with antipathy towards the U.S. growing due to recent policy decisions. The Trump administration’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, along with threats to do the same to the European Union, have stirred resentment among foreign visitors. Domestically, policies to curb immigration have been intensified, leading to layoffs in several government agencies, and controversial plans for the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have been drafted.

In the business travel sector, the report suggests that some organizations may reconsider hosting events in the U.S. or sending employees there due to the polarizing political climate. The World Tourism Forum Institute further warned that strict immigration policies, a strong dollar, and global political tensions could significantly affect international arrivals, potentially reshaping the U.S. tourism sector for years.

Despite these concerns, some tourists remain undeterred. For instance, tourists from France, Uzbekistan, and Argentina have maintained their travel plans, albeit with heightened caution. However, in February, the U.S. Travel Association warned that customs tariffs could deter Canadians, who constituted the largest group of foreign tourists in the U.S. in 2024, with 20.4 million visitors.

The effect is already visible in New York, a city that welcomed 12.9 million foreign travelers in 2024. According to NYC Tourism president Julie Coker, Canadians have been canceling tour bookings, and online searches for hotels or Broadway shows have declined.

According to Tourism Economics, the tourism sector could lose about $64 billion in revenue in 2025 due to the decline in international and domestic travel. The economic outlook and fears of recession, inflation, and a stronger greenback also deter tourists.

The tightening immigration policy could also impact major sports events hosted by the United States, such as the Ryder Cup (2025), the FIFA World Cup (2026), and the 2026 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. All these factors combined present a challenging scenario for the U.S. tourism industry.

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