Snow is finally coming to southern Ontario and here’s when it will hit

With December now just days away, many people are wondering when it will finally snow in Ontario.

Southern Ontario, in particular, has somehow managed to evade snow late into November, but new forecasts warn that the mild temperatures enjoyed in this part of the province this fall may soon come to an end.

Keep the first week of December marked on your calendar as the most likely time for Southern Ontario to experience its first significant snowfall this season. 

And while that date is still some time away, forecasts anticipate that a potential drop to below-seasonal temperatures and the opportunity for heavy precipitation could result in the country’s most populous region being blanketed in snow.

The Weather Network reports that meteorologists are currently tracking multiple low-pressure systems that will hit in the coming days, and parts of the province could see rain mixed with wet snow on Sunday night and into Monday, affecting areas of eastern Ontario and Cottage Country.

However, it will be the following week when things could get really messy for a larger portion of the province. 

According to The Weather Network, “temperatures will be near seasonal and possibly even a couple degrees colder than seasonal” during the first week of December.

“If this pattern verifies as expected, then we could also be looking at our first significant snowfall of the season for parts of southern Ontario.”

As of Nov. 21, forecasts are calling for snow to arrive as early as the overnight hours of Nov. 30, with the potential for snowfall daily from that point until at least Dec. 5.

Snow could continue in the days that follow, with European weather models shifting from a prediction that snow would be absent in the Greater Toronto Area to one indeed forecasting snow.

Potential for a heavy snow event was previously forecast for this coming week using this same European model, while snow was absent in the North American model used by The Weather Network and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

Earlier in November, Trudy Kidd, a meteorologist at ECCC, explained to blogTO how the discrepancies in snowfall forecasts between these two models “likely comes down to several factors.”

Kidd noted the “differences in model resolution,” as well as varying “physics in how they handle certain conditions,” noting that “even small differences in the initial conditions” can be “amplified over time.”

In what is turning out to be a rather prophetic statement, Kidd said, “sometimes, especially when it comes to winter weather forecasting, you can even see big differences a week in advance.” 

She predicted that “as we move closer to the event start to that day, the weather models will converge,” something now coming to fruition in forecasts for the end of November into December.

So, get the shovels and salt ready because Old Man Winter is ready to announce his unwelcome return.