Toronto real estate market expected to bounce back with price gains in 2025

Realtors continue to insist that Toronto’s housing market is climbing out of the lull that characterized the last year or so, with 2024 serving as a period of terribly weak sales and, in the case of condos, declining prices — a rarity in a city so stubbornly overvalued, even in the face of waning buyer interest.

Stats from December just released by Royal LePage this week do show that by year’s end, more homes were changing hands across the country than earlier in the year, with lower interest rates, an abundance of listings, and more negotiating power making people far less hesitant to wade in.

Prices in some areas went up as a result when compared to the same time the year prior, including in the GTA.

Looking at the fourth quarter of last year compared to Q4 2023, the price tag on the typical home in Canada rose by 3.8 per cent, and by 2.3 per cent in the Toronto area in particular, where the average home now costs a whopping $1,149,300.

Though this is a slight climb year-over-year, this price point actually marks a marginal 0.6 per cent dip between Q3 and Q4 of last year, with the GTA somewhat bucking the trend that Royal LePage is reporting for the country as a whole.

The City of Toronto proper had its own story to tell compared to the rest of the region, with the mean price of a house, condo or townhouse falling not just quarter-over-quarter (by 2.6 per cent) but year-over-year (by 1.7 per cent), to $1,099,900.

This can be attributed to the floundering condo market, where agents and sellers are still having a tough time moving units at the still-too-high prices that the city is known for. Investors, too, have balked at the potential losses with mortgage payments being so high, rents being so low and tenants, in some cases, being extremely delinquent.

Moving ahead, though, Royal LePage’s experts are anticipating real estate values to ascend about five per cent over the course of 2025, cracking the $1.2 million mark.

Chart showing what Royal LePage expects average home prices in various Canadian cities will be in 2025, from its latest Market Survey Forecast.

“We saw sales activity begin to pick up at the end of 2024, with more showings and more appointments. This trend should continue well into 2025,” reads the report’s summary of the GTA.

It does, though, note forthcoming “better market conditions” for homebuyers because of changes to lending rates and mortgage rules — conditions that could be overshadowed by the political landscape over the year, including potential issues with the U.S.

“There’s enough inventory right now to keep a lid on price gains, and we shouldn’t see the multiple-offer frenze that characterized peak markets, except on those prices below market value,” it continues. “A gradual increase in market activity should unfold, which will ultimately be beneficial for both buyers and sellers.”

Townhomes remain the most successful market segment in the city, with condos still performing the worst as far as price changes and sales volumes.