U.S. recession forecasts pushed back in business economists survey
A majority of U.S. business economists said they expected the economy to be more resilient later this year than previously expected, after a series of reports found the economy to be surprisingly resilient despite steadily rising interest rates. I expect a setback to begin.
58% of the 48 economists who responded to the survey American Business Economics Association That’s the same percentage who said so in a survey NABE conducted in December. But only a quarter of them believe the recession will start by the end of March, and only half of those who thought so in December.
The findings, which reflect a survey of economists from businesses, industry groups and academia, were released Monday.
A third of economists surveyed expect a recession to start in the April-June quarter. We believe a fifth will start in the July-September quarter.
Economists’ forecasts of when a recession will begin have lagged behind, even after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates eight times in a desperate effort to slow growth and keep high inflation in check. It follows a series of government reports pointing to a strong economy. .
In January, more than half a million jobs were added by employers and the unemployment rate hit 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
Retail and restaurant sales rose 3% in January, the first monthly increase in nearly two years. This suggests that consumers overall, who drive much of the economic growth, are still financially healthy and willing to spend.
At the same time, several government announcements also showed that inflation spiked again in January after months of muting, raising fears that the Fed might raise its benchmark rate further than previously expected. increase. When the Fed raises key interest rates, it typically makes mortgages, auto loans, and credit card borrowings more expensive. Interest rates on business loans will also rise.
Tight credit could weaken the economy and even trigger a recession. The Fed has never succeeded in bringing inflation down from its recent highs without triggering a recession, according to an economic survey released on Friday.