One of the most consequential rounds of global climate negotiations has kicked off in Belém, Brazil. Leaders from nearly every country in the world — but notably, not the US — are gathering to try to ramp up action on climate change during a time of tremendous transformation when it comes to both energy systems and international cooperation.
Whatever happens over the course of talks at the United Nations climate conference, known as COP30 this year, will be a peek into what the shuffling world order means for the climate we live in now and for generations to come.
No pressure, right? Here’s what to know as the negotiations take place through November 21st.
The event is called COP30 because it’s the 30th annual “Conference of the Parties,” a convening of more than 195 nations that have ratified the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
A peek into what the shuffling world order means for the climate we live in
They’ve made some bold commitments over the years, most importantly adopting the landmark Paris agreement in 2015. The accord sets a goal of preventing global average temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius higher than it was before the Industrial Revolution, ideally to no more than 1.5 degrees. That might not sound like much, but the planet is already about 1.3 degrees warmer than it was during the late 1850s, and that’s fueling more devastating storms, coastal flooding, wildfires, droughts, habitat destruction, and other climate-related disasters.
To reach the Paris goal, many of the participating countries have promised to triple renewable and nuclear energy capacity. The 2023 COP even came tantalizingly close to reaching a deal to phase out fossil fuels, and ultimately settled on a more nebulous goal of “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. Research shows that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by around 2050, which is only possible if economies run on carbon pollution-free sources of energy such as solar, wind, and nuclear power instead of coal, oil, and gas.
What’s different this year?
This year marks a deadline for countries to submit ramped up national plans to achieve the Paris agreement, about a decade after they struck the deal. So far, more than 110 of the nations that are a member of the Conference of the Parties have done so. The UN climate conference taking place in Belém this month is an opportunity for any stragglers to submit their national climate plans, and for other countries to hold them accountable for doing so. After all, one country’s planet-heating pollution will affect the rest of the world. The group can’t really achieve its mission unless each member does its part.
This is where the wheels are starting to come off the process. One government — which happens to be the world’s leading oil and gas producer and second biggest climate polluter — certainly isn’t falling in line. President Donald Trump signed an executive order this year on his first day in office to pull the US out of the Paris agreement as part of his crusade to boost the fossil fuel industry that backed his reelection. Not only is Trump reneging on previous climate commitments, he’s also attempting to strong-arm other countries into abandoning climate action by threatening them with tariffs or sanctions.
The US isn’t expected to send an official delegation to Belém, but it might be shooting itself in the foot by losing a seat at the table where plans come together to shape the future of energy. “Everybody’s still marching ahead, and it’s really important that this COP shows that even without the US, the Paris agreement is working … it’s just very sad to go to meetings and see the US nameplate there, and no one sitting behind it,” Kaveh Guilanpour, vice president for international strategies at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, said during a press briefing ahead of the UN convening.
There are other thorny issues to tackle for delegates who do attend the negotiations, including a plan to scale up climate finance to $1.3 trillion annually to help communities recover from climate disasters, adapt to the even more extreme changes ahead, and build out more carbon-free sources of energy.
It’s going to be an uphill battle, even aside from the Trump administration’s sabotage. A global trend toward inward-looking nationalism has been steadily chipping away at the post World War II-era of multilateralism. The rise of generative AI has led to soaring electricity demand, and we’ve seen companies’ greenhouse gas emissions grow as a result. Even Bill Gates, who’s been a major climate philanthropist, suddenly downplayed climate risks while promoting the benefits of AI in a memo published just before COP30. Affordability crises have taken center stage in local politics, with some pundits attempting to blame renewable energy for rising electricity costs even though onshore wind and solar are the cheapest new sources of power to build out in most places in the world.
“The picture is becoming more complicated,” David Yellen, director of climate policy innovation at the Clean Air Task Force, said in another pre-COP30 briefing. “In the face of fragmentation, in the face of continued inflation, unclear growth outlooks, climate has taken a backseat across most regions. This is not a US story. This is a global story.”
How much progress has the world made on climate change? Is there still hope?
Sigh. The bad news is that the most ambitious target of stopping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius is probably now out of reach, according to the latest UN emissions report released last week.
“Despite all the warnings, the world has continued to emit greenhouse gasses at record levels, so this conclusion wasn’t unexpected,” Martin Krause, director of the United Nations Environmental Programme’s Climate Change Division, said in a press release. “But it should be a wakeup call to everyone.”
We’re now roughly looking at between 2.3 and 2.8 degrees of warming this century, based on current climate policies. The better news is that this forecast is still much rosier than what that outlook was when the Paris agreement was adopted a decade ago, when researchers expected about 4 degrees of warming. (Keep in mind that these numbers represent a global average, and actual temperature swings on the ground can be significantly higher from region to region.)
The point is that climate change is a lever humans can push up or down. It’s within our control, and every fraction of a degree of progress makes a difference in the kind of future we have. There are also concrete steps we can take to prepare for the changes ahead, when it comes to building up defenses against more extreme weather, for example. The negotiations taking place at COP30 set up what the world’s next moves will be.
