Unscrambling the price of eggs | Canada Voices

A wave of deadly avian flu outbreaks has sent U.S. egg prices soaring, driving up breakfast costs across American kitchens and diners and even sparking egg heists. But north of the border, Canadian consumers have remained relatively unscathed.

So what’s keeping egg prices here steady? Some argue it’s a testament to the benefit of the country’s approach to farming – the controversial supply-management system that assigns production quotas while regulating the price of eggs, poultry and dairy. Others say it’s more a reflection of unscrupulous practices among American farmers, who have been accused of price gouging.

Here’s what’s behind the differences in egg prices in Canada and the United States and what to expect as the avian flu continues to spread.

What’s happening with eggs in the U.S.?

Since 2022, more than 166 million birds – both wild and farmed – across the U.S. have been affected by a highly infectious strain of avian flu, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That includes about 35 million of them this year alone, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Once the virus is detected on a farm, the entire flock has to be killed to prevent its spread. This reduces egg supply, raises costs for farmers and sends prices soaring.

According to the U.S. Consumer Price Index, egg prices jumped 15.24 per cent between December and January and 53 per cent year-over-year. The USDA’s February food outlook predicted another 41.1-per-cent increase in U.S. egg prices this year.

Is bird flu the only problem?

The scale and business model of U.S. egg farms may be exacerbating the bird flu crisis.

Maurice Doyon, Egg Industry Economic Research Chair and Université Laval professor, said bigger price jumps for eggs in the U.S. mean farms have to be very large for producers to make a profit. But the other side of the coin is that disease can spread more easily. Industry consolidation also means consumers have fewer choices in times of crisis. “There’s about 100 companies in the U.S. who are producing … something like 80 per cent of all eggs,” he said.

According to the U.S. agricultural marketing resource centre, 99 per cent of all laying hens are owned by 201 companies.

Cal-Maine Foods Inc., the largest U.S. egg producer, controls 20 per cent of the U.S. egg supply. In 2023, the Mississippi-based company’s profit soared 718 per cent in one quarter.

Advocacy groups in the U.S. have accused giant companies of taking advantage of the bird flu crisis to turn a bigger profit. Farm Action, which advocates on behalf of smaller farmers and consumers, noted that egg production shrunk about 4 per cent from last year and yet consumers across the U.S. are finding egg shelves empty at their local grocery stores.

What’s driving prices higher in the U.S. compared with Canada?

Avian flu has affected birds on both sides of the border. While egg prices in Canada have increased about 9.6 per cent year-over-year from January, 2024, to January, 2025, according to Statistics Canada, the country has largely dodged the severe spikes south of the border. So much so that egg interceptions at the Windsor-Detroit border have shot up 36 per cent between October, 2024, and February this year, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Roughly 2.7 million egg-laying hens have been euthanized in Canada over the three-year period from Jan. 1, 2022, to Jan. 1, 2025, according to University of Waterloo professor and Egg Farmers of Canada Research Chair, Bruce Muirhead. While that is not an insignificant part of the flock of roughly 35 million laying hens across the country, “that is eminently replaceable,” he said.

The cull in the U.S. has been much more widespread and the difference comes down to concentration, scale and supply management.

Canada’s egg farms have about 23,000 egg-producing hens on average. In contrast, American farms usually have 50,000 to six million hens. Among the roughly 200 egg farms dominating the U.S. industry, the average flock size was about 1.5 million according to Chicken Farmers of Canada.

If the virus sweeps through a U.S. farm – requiring all the birds to be culled and the facility to be disinfected – the impact on the overall egg supply is much more serious, Prof. Muirhead said.

“These aren’t farms, they’re megabusinesses really,” he said. Smaller, more dispersed farms in Canada mean that when outbreaks happen, fewer chickens are infected or killed.

Mr. Doyon also said supply management in Canada can help streamline communication between farmers so they can quickly share information about infected birds. It also allows Canadian farmers to redistribute egg supply in times of crisis.

“If one region of the country is significantly impacted by an outbreak, eggs from other provinces that are not experiencing avian influenza outbreaks can be shipped to help bolster the local egg supply,” said Elissa Zaks, a spokesperson for Egg Farmers of Canada, an industry group.

Supply management has often been criticized for enriching farmers at a cost to Canadian families as import and production controls can limit choice and competitive pricing.

Is all of Canada safe from rising egg prices?

British Columbia has experienced sharper price increases than the rest of the country because of regional farm concentration and geography. According to 2023 Statistics Canada data, British Columbians paid the most for their eggs among Canadian provinces at $5.40 for a dozen while Quebecers paid the least at $3.87.

More wild birds migrate along the West Coast, adding up to potentially higher exposure to diseases, said Michael Von Massow, professor of food agriculture and resource economics at the University of Guelph.

“The other thing is that the barns will be closer together,” he said. British Columbia’s topology, including its vast mountain ranges, have meant that farms are nearer to one another and viruses can spread more easily.