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Despite little public faith that Canada’s housing market is going to suddenly recuperate following months of meagre sales, one of the nation’s biggest real estate organizations has high hopes for 2025.
The nation’s unstable economy, cost of living crisis, high interest rates and incomprehensibly high home prices that have failed to yield much in the face of this latest lull have had residents reconsidering whether home ownership is a realistic, or even shrewd, goal to have anymore.
But RE/MAX Canada has issued a rosy forecast for the year ahead, one that predicts prices to heat up substantially in parts of Ontario. This is even though, by its own measures, only 36 per cent of Canadians believe the housing market will improve, and around half don’t feel any more optimistic about the market than they did last year.
Toronto is overrun with homes for sale that no one is buying because prices are still sky-high https://t.co/roZyJt8w1p
— blogTO (@blogTO) July 4, 2024
The firm writes in its latest outlook report, released Tuesday, that “the current environment is more encouraging than it has been in the past few years, especially for first-time homebuyers” due to gradual declines in lending and stress test rates.
So, brokers are expecting (and hoping for) a boost in sales as we move into 2025 — which “almost always leads to rising prices, which is the trend we’re expecting to see materialize in virtually all Canadian housing markets,” the report states.
Nationally, RE/MAX is projecting a five per cent spike in average prices and up to 25 per cent more homes changing hands, led by places like Vancouver — which it says will see prices rise about 7 per cent and sales, 20 — but also by parts of Ontario.
Simcoe County is projected too see the biggest jump in real estate activity out of anywhere in the country, with the brand calling for 25 per cent more transactions in the region next year compared to 2024, and a 10 per cent spike in average residential sale prices, to $884,675.
Also high on the list is Toronto, which is set to see a flurry of 12.5 per cent more home sales in 2025, though only a slight 0.1 per cent bump in prices year-over-year, bringing us to an average of a still-bonkers $1,115,381.
Kingston is likewise supposed to experience a double-digit uptick in sales activity (of 1o per cent), with prices set to climb 5 per cent for the average house or condo in the city (to $671,421.50).
The most substantial price growth in Ontario will be seen in Simcoe, Kitchener-Waterloo (where the typical home will go up by 6 per cent, to $817,013), Mississauga (also +6 per cent, to $1,129,878) and Brampton (+6 per cent, to $1,072,630).
How RE/MAX predicts home prices and real estate sales volumes across Ontario to change from 2024 to 2025. It is noteworthy that the brokerage has a vested interest in real estate sales and prices improving.
Sudbury is the only Ontario locale where the company does not foresee buyer interest returning in the months to come, though it still projects home prices in the northern city to swell by 5 per cent year-over-year, to $487,986.
“Like Western Canada, Ontario is expecting a mix of market types in 2025 as different regions adjust to lower interest rates,” the report says, adding that 36 per cent of regions are expected to reach a balanced state between supply and demand, while 31 per cent are expected to move into sellers’ markets. The remainder (about 33 per cent) will favour buyers, or will see conditions flip over the year.
“Despite ongoing affordability and inventory challenges across multiple markets, buyers’ confidence is returning as buyers feel the impact of lower mortgage rates and new 30-year amortizations. As a result, the majority of regions anticipate first-time homebuyers to drive market activity in 2025.”
This latter point does not apply to pricier areas like Toronto, Windsor, Simcoe and York, where “move-up buyers” who can afford property here will be the main force behind any sales growth.
And on the subject of the amortization changes, RE/MAX’s consumer survey included alongside its predictions says 59 per cent of Canadians aren’t confident, that these new changes to mortgage rates and rules will solve our affordability issue, and 43 per cent deem home ownership out of reach for them.
