Canada warns that 2025 will be a year of record-breaking heat

Canadians are in for another year of record-breaking heat, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)’s latest report.

The Canadian Centre for Climate Change Modelling Analysis forecasts a global mean surface temperature of 1.45 C above pre-industrial levels in 2025.

It’s slightly cooler than the record-high temperature of 1.55 C above the level in 2024, but the forecast is certain that it will be hotter than any year on record before 2023.

“High temperatures are forecasted to persist despite the end of the El Niño event that warmed the tropical Pacific and boosted global temperatures in 2023 and 2024,” reads the report.

According to the ECCC, global mean temperatures represent the difference between the temperature for a given year and the global mean temperature averaged from 1850 to 1900, before most human-made warming.

This year, the global mean temperature is forecast to be between 1.35 C and 1.55 C. It’ll be the 12th consecutive year temperatures have reached at least 1 C above pre-industrial levels.

The world saw record-breaking heat in 2023 and 2024, reaching 1.43 C and 1.55 C above the pre-industrial period, respectively.

“These unprecedented temperatures were driven by multiple factors, including unusually warm ocean waters and a strong El Niño event, compounded by the ongoing long-term trend of human-induced global warming,” reads the report. “The record high temperatures in 2023 and 2024 were accompanied by heatwaves across Canada attributed to climate change.”

Last year was the hottest year globally on record and the first year to exceed the 1.5 C threshold established by the Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate change.

The forecast says exceeding this threshold in a single year isn’t a breach of the agreement and doesn’t indicate that the long-term average of global mean surface temperatures has surpassed 1.5 C.

While the ECCC predicts only a 17 per cent chance of exceeding the threshold this year, its 10-year forecasts indicate the next five years are likely to be the warmest five-year period on record.