Ontario may be in the depths of a brutal winter right now, but the province’s 2025 spring forecast could be just the thing to snap you out of your seasonal blues.
It has been a brutally cold few weeks across Ontario, with even more extreme temperatures on the way. However, there is finally a light at the end of the frigid, salt-encrusted tunnel.
Ontario can rejoice at the news that meteorologists expect a decent chance of above-normal temperatures this spring, according to a new seasonal forecast released on Friday.
The 2025 spring outlook was looking somewhat average just a few months earlier. Back in November, the 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac yearly long-rage forecast predicted that warmer-than-normal temps may be limited to the northern reaches of the province, explaining, “April and May will be warmer and drier in the north, with near-normal temperatures and wetter-than-normal conditions in the south.”
However, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) updated long-term temperature probabilistic forecasts, released on Friday, show that balmy spring temperatures could be felt across much of the province in the months to come, with predictions a bit on the warmer side than the Almanac’s earlier forecast.
According to ECCC’s current 1-3-month outlook, Ontario residents can expect warmer-than-normal temperatures from February through April 2025.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Southern Ontario is located within a large band of the province that is anticipated to experience a 60 per cent probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures during this three-month span.
ECCC’s 2-4-month outlook, covering the span of March through May, similarly calls for a high probability of above-normal temperatures, with a 60 per cent probability covering much of the province, including all of the densely-populated Southern Ontario region.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Above-average temps this spring could just be the prelude to a scorching summer ahead.
According to ECCC’s 4-6-month outlook, which extends from May through July, much of the province is facing a 60 per cent chance of above-normal temps, with some pockets of southern and eastern Ontario forecast at 70 per cent probability of warmer-than-normal conditions.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Gerald Cheng, a meteorologist with ECCC, explains that these probability maps are formulated by running a simulated climate model 20 times.
“We read the climate models, take in the data, and then they run it, and then this is what it spits out.”
And, while these projections offer a decent glimpse ahead, Cheng notes that these models are just a percentage, explaining that “there may be anomalies that throw conditions off.”
“It’s three months, so that’s pretty long, and it doesn’t really indicate the individual trends or the ups and downs. That shows you the climate, the average condition, and the three-month average, but it doesn’t tell you the day-to-day.”
So, keep those t-shirts on standby, Ontario. We just have a bit more cold weather to endure before patio season arrives in full force.
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