Tropics update: NHC monitoring disturbance in Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of potential tropical activity along the Southeastern U.S. Coast, east of Florida. It has a low development chance over the next 7 days, but marks the first official area of interest of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of interest – a potential disturbance – in the Atlantic, off the southeastern coast of the United States.
It marks the first official tropical outlook of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The Pacific has already seen its first storm – Tropical Storm Alvin – come and go, and has a second disturbance already being monitored.
For Florida, there is very little concern regarding this potential disturbance. The FOX 35 Storm Teams says if it were to develop, it would be moving away from Florida up the southeastern U.S.
What we know:
A low-pressure system is forecast to form near or just offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast – including Florida’s eastern coast – over the next couple of days.
“If the system remains offshore, the low could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph,” the NHC said in a 2 p.m. advisory on Monday.
The system has a low chance – around 10% – of development over the next seven days. At most, the system would possibly become a brief depression, unlikely a tropical storm, according to FOX 35 Storm Meteorologist Noah Bergren.
Could this potential disturbance impact Florida?
Local perspective:
For Florida – even if the system does not reach tropical designation – it could bring a few days of gusty onshore winds (25–35 mph) along the east coast from Jacksonville to Florida’s Space Coast.
It may also lead to rougher surf from Thursday to Friday and increase the chances of thunderstorms during that same period.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, Dates, Predictions
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, and much like last year, the FOX 35 Storm Team expects a lot of ocean heat content to fuel the potential for an above-average season.
Experts at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) share a similar outlook:
What we know:
NOAA’s hurricane forecast:
- 13-19 named storms
- 6-10 hurricanes
- 3-5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)
CSU’s hurricane forecast:
- 17 named tropical storms
- Of which, 9 become hurricanes
- Of which, 4 reach “major” hurricane strength (Cat. 3 or higher)
What is an average hurricane season?
Big picture view:
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, an average Atlantic hurricane season sees:
- 14 named tropical storms
- 7 hurricanes
- 3 “major” hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
Why are we expecting an above-average hurricane season?
Dig deeper:
There are a multitude of factors in the atmosphere that will heighten the chance of an above-average season.
The climate pattern has been shifting, and it’s looking like we’re going to remain in the Neutral Phase of ENSO. With that, we typically see reduced wind shear in the Atlantic Basin which means storms can form and strengthen rapidly.
That strengthening is only exacerbated by the warmer than average ocean temperatures. That along with more active Western African Monsoon can help spin-up more tropical systems.
How likely will a tropical storm or hurricane make landfall in the U.S. this year?
Colorado State University also looks at the probability of whether a “major” hurricane – Category 3, 4, or 5 storm – will make landfall in the U.S., along Florida’s Coast, or within the Gulf Coast.
- 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
- 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
- 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas(average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
- 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)
List: 2025 Atlantic hurricane storm names
Here are the tropical cyclone names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Click here to view the pronunciation guide.
- Andrea
- Barry
- Chantal
- Dexter
- Erin
- Fernand
- Gabrielle
- Humberto
- Imelda
- Jerry
- Karen
- Lorenzo
- Melissa
- Nestor
- Olga
- Pablo
- Rebekah
- Sebastien
- Tanya
- Van
- Wendy
How do you prepare for hurricane season?
It’s never too early to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season – or any emergency. It’s important to have a plan, have ways to communicate and get emergency information, save and protect important documents, medication, and have extra food and water.
Click the links below for helpful guides on what to pack in your emergency kit:
Here are a few other key ways to prepare for hurricane season in Florida:
- Know your evacuation zone and route by checking FloridaDisaster.org.
- Stay informed by downloading weather apps, signing up for local alerts, and monitoring trusted news sources.
- Plan for pets and vulnerable family members, including elderly relatives or those with medical needs.
- Back up important digital files and contacts in case of power outages or loss of access.
Download the FOX Local app
The FOX 35 Storm Team and newsroom will be with you every step of the way during hurricane season. Download the free FOX Local app to your smart phone for the latest breaking news, weather updates, and tropical forecasts. Download the FOX 35 Weather app to track the latest weather forecasts and tropical cones on your cell phone. Install the FOX Local app to your smart TV to stream FOX 35 newscasts.
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The Source: This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center on June 2, 2025.
