CoStar and Tourism Economics Downgrade U.S. Hotel Growth Forecasts For 2025-26

The U.S. hotel industry is bracing for slower growth as CoStar and Tourism Economics have revised their forecasts downward for 2025-26. Announced at the 17th Annual Hotel Data Conference, these adjustments reflect ongoing economic uncertainties and subdued performance. Key metrics such as demand, Average Daily Rate (ADR), and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) have all been lowered, with demand forecasted to drop by 0.6 percentage points in 2025 and 0.5 in 2026.

Amanda Hite, STR president, highlighted that persistent inflation, tough calendar comparisons, and evolving travel patterns are significant contributors to the reduced demand. Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism that hotel performance will improve following the conclusion of trade talks and the impact of the budget reconciliation bill.

Aran Ryan from Tourism Economics noted that while the U.S. economy is slowing, it is expected to withstand tariff impacts without entering a recession. The current economic environment, marked by reduced consumer and business spending and declining international visitors, is anticipated to stabilize with the help of tax cuts and reduced policy uncertainty by 2026.

Furthermore, while the Gross Operating Profit Per Available Room (GOPPAR) forecast remains unchanged, GOP margins have been revised down due to potential increases in expenses, particularly in food and beverage.