A decline in visitor numbers to Sin City has caught media attention, but what do the numbers behind the headlines tell us?
This article originally appeared on Lighthouse.
Key takeaways
A sobering downturn: Official data reveals a clear slump in the first half of 2025, with declines in visitor volume, RevPAR, and room rates.
More than just a slump: This isn’t a collapse, but a shift. Vegas is coming down from a relative high of post-COVID spending and visitors are favoring shorter, more event-driven trips over longer, high-spending vacations, potentially due to unstable economic and political conditions.
Hotels under pressure: As a result, hotels are aggressively discounting, with advertised rates for the second half of the year down significantly year-over-year.
The rise of the road tripper: A decline in air travel to Las Vegas coupled with an increase in highway traffic points to a shift from fly-in tourism to regional road trips.
Vegas remains resilient: Despite the challenges, the city’s unique position as a major events hub – from concerts to conventions – is helping it weather the storm.
The glitz and glamour of Las Vegas have long been an irresistible draw, but recent headlines and social media influencers suggest the city’s magnetic pull may be waning.
With a decline in visitor numbers dominating the conversation, the question arises, have travelers tired of taking a gamble on a trip to Vegas?
What’s really going on when we dig in and look at the data? A closer look reveals a more nuanced story than the doom-and-gloom narratives would suggest. While official figures point to a definite downturn, they also uncover a transformation in what a Vegas vacation looks like in 2025.
This isn’t a collapse in demand, but rather a pivot in consumer behavior, a shift that the city’s hospitality sector must address to remain competitive.
The official Las Vegas tourism numbers tell a sobering story
According to data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) Research Center, the first half of 2025 has been a challenging period for the city’s tourism industry.
Key performance indicators show declines across the board:
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Overall visitor volume: Down by over 7%
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Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR): Decreased by nearly 8%
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Room nights sold: Fell by just under 6%
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Average Daily Rate (ADR): Dropped by an average of 6% year-over-year (YoY)
These figures, in particular the sharp decline in visitor volume, clearly indicate that high-spending, long-haul travelers are not returning at the same pace as they did in 2024.
The negative effect of fewer travelers intensifies in the second half of the year
Our own proprietary data set provides a deeper view of the market, suggesting that the pressure on Vegas hoteliers is intensifying in the latter half of 2025.
While hotel rates showed a modest 3% increase YoY in the first half of the year, roughly in line with inflation and painting a more stable picture than the LVCVA’s numbers, the outlook for the second half is noticeably weaker.
A comparison of actualized prices for the first half of the year with future advertised rates reveals aggressive discounting. YoY, these average rates are down a significant 11%.
This reflects a broader trend of more cautious spending from both international and domestic visitors. Commerce Department figures from June 2025 corroborate this, noting a reduction in outlays on hotel and motel accommodations as U.S. consumers react to economic uncertainty and the expectation of rising inflation.
Las Vegas travel demand evolves as consumer behavior alters
While economic headwinds are undoubtedly a factor, they haven’t led to a complete collapse in demand.
Our index of daily demand indicators shows only a slight slowdown, with a -0.5% fall in the mean average for the remainder of 2025. This suggests that while overall demand has softened, the city is still a sought-after destination and it is likely more indicative of a transition to a different spending pattern and overall composition of visitors.
The real story lies in the changing nature of that demand. LVCVA data displays a decline in air passenger arrivals (-4% YoY in H1 2025) coupled with a rise in major highway traffic (+2%). This points to a shift from long, fly-in trips to shorter, more event-driven road trips.
This is further supported by search data, which shows a steady decline in overall search volumes over the past two years on OTA and metasearch sites, with searches for longer stays (four days or more) down by 2% and searches for one-night stays up by the same amount.
A trendline of search volume over the 36 months prior to the time of writing shows a relatively steady decline in the number of searches made from that post-COVID period of very high spend on leisure, with searches for the peak summer period falling every year for the last three years.
This trend is not limited to leisure travelers. The Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) sector shows a similar pattern. Here we see the same picture of declining Global Distribution System (GDS) searches across the last three years, with average volumes more than halving compared to three years ago. GDS remains the number one way to promote your hotel to the corporate travel market globally.
While convention attendance was up 1.5% YoY in the first half of 2025 according to LVCVA, it appeared to be weakening by June, with visitor numbers down 11% compared to the previous year.
This mirrors the broader trends of shorter stays, with business travelers making 2% more searches for stays of three nights or less and a 3% reduction in searches for stays of four to seven nights.
Overall, the data paints a picture of a city moving away from its post-COVID spending peak. Travelers are increasingly focused on the value proposition, opting for shorter, more concentrated stays centered around specific events, shows, and residencies.
Hotels are reacting to this by adjusting rates, with a 2% average cut compared to 90 days ago, though significant spikes are observed for major events like the upcoming Canelo vs. Crawford boxing match, where prices are up over 20%.
The path forward: Adapting to the new Las Vegas traveler
For the world’s largest hotel market by rooms, this shift is big news. Demand is down and hoteliers are reacting with lower rates, especially in the second half of the year.
However, demand hasn’t collapsed and Vegas isn’t a standout in this regard, with a general decline in overseas visitor volumes affecting many tourism destinations, especially those previously reliant on Canadian visitors.
Instead, the composition of consumers and what they value is shifting, with visitors often heading into Vegas for big events and shows and then heading out more quickly than they would in the past, as they seek to economize in the face of falling confidence in overall economic conditions.
Las Vegas hoteliers must recognize this shift in the demand landscape and adapt.
Simply cutting rates is one approach, but it’s not the only one. Hoteliers should recognize that the modern Vegas traveler is a value-conscious consumer driven by specific events.
This calls for a more strategic response:
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Maximizing high-revenue opportunities: Capitalize on major events and shows by implementing dynamic pricing strategies that capture demand spikes.
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Targeted marketing and incentives: Create packages and promotions tied to the city’s unique entertainment offerings, from concerts to conventions.
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Value-focused offerings: Consider length of stay discounts and ancillaries that appeal to travelers seeking to maximize their experience on a tighter budget.
While Las Vegas is clearly feeling the effects of broader economic conditions, it may be more resilient than many other U.S. travel destinations. Its unique value proposition as the “Entertainment Center of the World” – anchored by its resorts, residencies, and major events – provides a crucial buffer.
The key for hospitality businesses is to stay informed and agile, recognizing that the changing tourism climate is not a sign of collapse, but a call to evolve.
Use forward-looking search data to fully understand and act demand in your market
The decline in visitor numbers, coupled with changing traveler preferences, underscores the need to move beyond traditional, reactive strategies.
By leveraging forward-looking search data, you can gain a critical competitive edge. These insights, gathered from real-time hotel and flight searches on OTAs and metasearch sites, provide an early warning system for shifts in traveler behavior, such as a preference for shorter stays or a focus on event-driven travel.
This enables you to proactively adjust pricing, optimize marketing spend, and create targeted promotions before your competitors even see the trend on the books.
To equip yourself with the best data and technology platform to navigate the complexities of modern tourism, get in touch with our team.
Jonathan Gough
Jonathan Gough is Content Team Lead at Lighthouse, spearheading all things content marketing. With a marketing career of over a decade, dedicated solely to travel, tourism and hospitality, Jonathan is passionate about leveraging Lighthouse’s technology to move the sector forward and provide lodging professionals with the tools they need to grow their business.
About Lighthouse
Lighthouse (formerly OTA Insight) is the leading commercial platform for the travel & hospitality industry. We transform complexity into confidence by providing actionable market insights, business intelligence, and pricing tools that maximize revenue growth. We continually innovate to deliver the best platform for hospitality professionals to price more effectively, measure performance more efficiently, and understand the market in new ways.
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