Nancy Guthrie disappearance: Former CIA agent says one mistake could crack case

TUCSON, Ariz. – A former CIA agent and high-ranking Arizona official says investigators are likely waiting for a single “human error” to crack the case of Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance.

What He’s Saying:

“We as the good guys only need them to be wrong once,” he said. 

Tim Roemer, who served as the director of the Arizona Department of Homeland Security and is now the CEO of Scottsdale-based cybersecurity firm GMI, offered his perspective on the FBI’s efforts to trace those responsible for sending ransom notes to Tucson newsrooms and TMZ.

“The most important thing here is human error,” Roemer said. “I really think whoever is behind this and behind the email is going to make a mistake, not utilizing the right kinds of technology, and that one mistake is going to be what gets them caught.”

Dig deeper:

Roemer said that while encryption can make digital investigations difficult, the presence of a physical crime scene at Guthrie’s home in the Catalina Foothills provides a significant advantage for law enforcement.

“In a normal cyber situation, breaking encryption, anything like that, is going to be difficult; it’s going to take time,” Roemer said. “However, again when you have a physical crime you have committed that you know is linked to the same thing, those are the clues and the mistakes that will lead to finding those responsible.”

Timeline:

The expert’s analysis comes as Savannah Guthrie released a fourth video statement on Monday as a reported 5 p.m. ransom deadline loomed.

“We believe our mom is still out there,” Guthrie said in the video.

Roemer said that such public appeals are often a strategic move to keep lines of communication open with the person or persons allegedly sending these ransom notes. However, he admitted that his outlook is growing more guarded as time passes without proof of life or consistent communication.

“They’re being coached very well on this,” Roemer said of the Guthrie family. “Sadly, I think my optimism fades and it leads to pessimism as we see a lack of communication, a lack of proof of life, and arbitrary deadlines coming and going.”

What you can do:

Anyone with tips should contact the FBI at 1-800-CALL-FBI. A tipline was also created for the community to submit information.

A reward of up to $50,000 is being offered for any information leading to Nancy Guthrie and/or the arrest and conviction of anyone involved. 

Map of area where Nancy Guthrie was last seen.

What’s next:

Roemer said that even if there isn’t a clear cut mistake, that eventually he believes the FBI will be able to solve the encryption no matter how robust. 

The search for the 84-year-old grandmother has entered its second week. No suspects or persons of interest have been identified by the Pima County Sheriff’s Department.