Picture Credit: Sony Pictures
A few months ago, we used exclusive data from Greenlight Analytics‘ tracking data for Netflix’s 2026 movie slate to look into what’s the most anticipated upcoming release of 2026, in addition to seeing what could do well in theaters and which movies people have even heard about. Spoiler alert: The ultimate victor was Here Comes The Flood, but another title that stood out as a particular point of curiosity for hardcore film fans: The Adventures of Cliff Booth.
The highly anticipated (and now officially acknowledged movie – thanks to the Super Bowl) spin-off of Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, directed by David Fincher and starring Brad Pitt, is already making waves online and is reportedly being released in August, and is also reportedly getting a theatrical release. But does the general public care? And more importantly, does this cinematic pedigree mean audiences want to see it on the big screen?
We reached out to Brandon Katz, Director of Insights & Content Strategy at Greenlight Analytics, to help us unpack the latest data behind the hype, if it exists at all.
The Awareness Drop: Nothing to Worry About (Yet)
If you look at the raw data, overall awareness for The Adventures of Cliff Booth actually ticked down from 15% in December 2025 to 13% in March 2026. But before anyone sounds the alarm on Fincher’s latest, Katz notes that this is par for the course.
“It is not uncommon for films with minimal marketing months out from release to see Awareness scores fluctuate,” Katz explains. “This is especially true for streaming exclusive movies, and doubly so for titles that don’t even have an official release date yet.”
He also dropped a fun industry tidbit: “The ugly secret of Super Bowl [citing previously released metrics] movie trailers is that they rarely lead to any sustained lifts. There’s no reason to worry just yet.”
From our side, we should say that Netflix hasn’t actually got that trailer up for viewing anywhere, and those who have uploaded it (see below) have a terrible quality teaser. We hear they’re planning a big blowout soon.
The “In-The-Know” Crowd is Ready
While general awareness might be hovering at just 13%, the conversion rate among those who do know about the film is stellar. A massive 71% of people who are aware of the project are interested in seeing it.
Katz tells us that a 71% “Interest Among Aware” (IAA) score is a very healthy place to be. “This compares well to other recent Netflix originals in their week of release, such as Frankenstein (70%), The Rip (72%), and Jay Kelly (72%), but behind Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story (80%).”
However, he cautions that high interest among a small group doesn’t automatically equal a massive hit. “Its reach is not yet broad enough. The key to watch for is whether it can maintain a 70-plus IAA score while pushing its Awareness above the 25%-35% range where many Netflix originals fall,” Katz says, noting that wide-release theatrical films usually have a floor of around 40%.
The Premium Fee Intent: Young Men Are Leading the Charge
When it comes to the willingness to pay a premium fee (like a theater ticket or a VOD rental), men under 35 are driving the demand. They are sitting at a 45% premium fee intent, which is a notable 13 points higher than women under 35 (32%).
Is this the Fincher/Tarantino effect? Absolutely.
“There’s little doubt that the trifecta of Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, David Fincher, and Brad Pitt are setting The Adventures of Cliff Booth up to resonate with the expected male audience,” Katz confirms. But it’s also about broader spending habits. Greenlight’s data consistently shows that men under 35 are the most passionately engaged film fans in the U.S. and the most likely to spend money on film across any format.
“Continuing this contemporary cult classic with another beloved filmmaker on the default streamer is practically catnip for this demo (and I count myself among them!),” Katz adds.
BACKGRID UK
The Big Question: Should Netflix Put It in Theaters?
Netflix has historically shied away from wide theatrical releases, but with men indicating a 29% theatrical intent compared to 24% for women, the question has to be asked. Could a theatrical run work?
“Given the reported above-the-line costs alone for The Adventures of Cliff Booth, it might have been worth a theatrical release for an attempt at monetary ROI,” Katz says. However, he acknowledges it’s a chicken-and-egg scenario. Right now, the overall theatrical intent sits at a modest 26%, which doesn’t scream urgent box office demand—but that’s likely due to the lack of marketing.
Here is how Katz breaks down the arguments for and against a theater run based on the data:
- The Case FOR Theatrical: Theatrical Intent Among Aware is currently 57%. “More than half of everyone who knows this film exists says they’d be willing to see it in theaters,” Katz notes. If Netflix can maintain that specific conversion rate while boosting overall awareness, it would be a massive signal of true theatrical value.
- The Case AGAINST Theatrical: Audiences still heavily favor their living rooms. The “Home-Free” crowd (those who want to watch it at home for no extra charge on Netflix) sits at 30%, which is triple the “Home-Pay” crowd at 10%. Furthermore, total home viewing preference (40%) still easily beats out the total theatrical preference (26%).
Ultimately, a theatrical release would require a traditional, expensive marketing push to raise the floor across all these metrics. For now, we’ll have to wait and see if Netflix decides to treat Cliff Booth as a more traditional theatrical, something more akin to its modest pushes for awards-fare or something new and stunty, akin to what we’ve been seeing play out for Stranger Things, One Piece, KPOP Demon Hunters, or Narnia this Thanksgiving.
Would you go and watch the new Cliff Booth movie in theaters, or would you prefer to watch it at home?
