Research Overview
A recent consumer sentiment survey conducted by ABTA – The Travel Association – examined the impact of the Middle East conflict and increased living costs on UK residents’ travel intentions over the next 12 months. The survey, carried out by The Nursery Research and Planning, included a nationally representative sample of 2,000 UK adults between 8 May and 19 May 2026.
Key Findings on Travel Intentions
The research found that 64% of respondents plan to travel overseas in the coming year. This figure represents a slight decrease from 70% in the previous year, indicating a modest reduction in international travel intentions. Despite this, holidays remain a top spending priority. Over one-third (34%) of those surveyed said they intend to spend more on holidays over the next year.
When asked about potential spending cutbacks due to the cost of living, holidays were the last area respondents said they would cut back on. Eating out (55%), leisure activities (45%), and clothing or footwear (41%) were more likely to be cut before holidays, with only 33% considering reducing spending on overseas holidays and 23% on UK breaks.
Booking Patterns and Delays
The survey revealed a trend toward late bookings. Among those planning to travel during the summer period (May to September 2026), 30% intend to book their trips two to four weeks in advance. An additional 10% plan to book with less than two weeks’ notice before departure.
Of those intending to travel in the next 12 months, 38% have delayed booking their holidays. The main reasons for postponing bookings include waiting to see changes in flight costs (43%), holiday prices (31%), and improvements in the cost of living (33%). Concerns about the conflict in the Middle East influenced 36% of those delaying, making it a more significant factor than jet fuel availability, which concerned 26%.
Impact of Cost of Living
The increased cost of living remains the primary deterrent for booking holidays, with 31% of all respondents citing it as a reason for not booking. Among those who do plan to travel, a growing proportion intend to reduce holiday spending: 20% said they would spend less on holidays in the next 12 months, up from 15% in the previous survey. Of those cutting back, 54% attributed their decision to increased household bills, compared to 47% in the prior research.
Industry and Economic Context
According to ABTA, the outbound travel industry generates £52 billion annually for the UK economy and supports over 818,000 jobs. The findings were released ahead of ABTA’s Travel Matters conference in Westminster, where government officials, industry leaders, and experts discussed the needs of travel businesses and the role of government support.
ABTA plans to share the research findings with its members and engage with Members of Parliament to highlight the value of the outbound travel sector and its contributions to local communities.
Survey Methodology
The 2026 survey was conducted by The Nursery Research and Planning, sampling 2,000 UK adults between 8 and 19 May 2026. Comparative figures are drawn from ABTA’s annual Holiday Habits research, which surveyed 2,001 UK adults between 21 July and 1 August 2025.
Conclusion
Despite economic pressures and international instability, UK consumers continue to prioritize holidays, with many planning overseas travel in the next year. However, concerns about costs and global events are influencing booking behavior, leading to more last-minute decisions and cautious spending.
