American Travelers Enter 2026 with Cautious Optimism and Cost-Conscious Plans :: Hospitality Trends

Future Partners reports that American travelers are prioritizing travel in 2026 but are approaching the year with increased financial caution, selective planning, and a focus on value amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Financial Sentiment and Outlook Remain Stable but Guarded

As 2026 begins, American travelers are maintaining a cautious approach to both their finances and travel plans. Data from December 2025 indicate that 31.3% of travelers feel financially better off than a year ago, a figure that is nearly unchanged year over year but has declined slightly month over month. While this suggests stability, the outlook for the coming year is less optimistic. Only 43.9% expect to be better off financially a year from now, down from 48.9% in December 2024.

Concerns about a potential recession persist. The proportion of travelers expecting a recession in the next six months stands at 44.7%, a figure that has remained steady in recent months but is significantly higher than at the same time last year. Nearly half (48.5%) report being more careful with their finances due to these concerns, highlighting a trend toward financial vigilance rather than outright retrenchment.

Travel Intentions: Selectivity Over Abandonment

Travel remains a priority for many Americans, but expectations for increased travel activity in 2026 are muted compared to the start of 2025. Only 23.6% of travelers expect to travel more for leisure in the coming year, down 8.3 percentage points from December 2024. Similarly, the share of those expecting to spend more on travel has declined to 29.5%, a 5-point year-over-year drop.

Despite these declines in intent, most Americans are not abandoning travel altogether. Instead, they are becoming more selective in their choices. The average estimated maximum annual leisure travel budget fell to $5,511 in December 2025, an 11.3% decrease from the previous month and a 6.6% drop from the previous year. This is the lowest level since May 2025, when economic uncertainty was heightened by tariff-related issues. Nevertheless, over half (55.4%) still consider travel a near-term budget priority, indicating that while demand is more refined, it remains present.

Recent Travel Activity: Strong Holiday Season Despite Caution

While forward-looking expectations are subdued, actual travel activity in December 2025 was robust. More than two-thirds (68.6%) of American travelers reported taking an overnight leisure trip in the past month, a 3-point increase from November and 4.4 points higher than December 2024.

Travel to visit friends and relatives (VFR) was particularly strong, with overnight VFR travel reaching 50.2% in December, up 5.9 points month-over-month and 4.3 points year-over-year. Day trips also saw strong participation, with 50.4% taking a leisure trip and 46.1% visiting friends or relatives. These figures suggest that, despite economic caution, the 2025 holiday season saw solid travel activity.

Looking Ahead: Fewer Trips, Shorter Planning Windows

Projections for 2026 indicate a slight decrease in the number of leisure trips Americans expect to take. The average expected number of leisure trips in the next year is 3.8, down from 4.0 in November and slightly below the 3.9 reported in December 2024. Demographic differences are notable: Millennials anticipate fewer trips (3.6) than average, while Boomers expect more (3.9). Income also plays a significant role: those earning $200,000 or more expect 4.9 trips, compared with 3.1 for those earning under $50,000.

Travel planning windows have normalized after expanding during the post-pandemic period. In late 2025, the average planning window stabilized at around 11 weeks. Younger travelers, such as Gen Z (9.2 weeks) and Millennials (10.1 weeks), plan on shorter timelines, while Boomers continue to plan further ahead (11.6 weeks). This trend indicates that flexibility and the ability to make last-minute decisions remain important, especially for younger travelers.

Interest in the 2026 FIFA World Cup

The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is generating significant travel interest, particularly among certain demographics. More than one-quarter (27.3%) of American travelers express some interest in traveling for the event. Interest is especially high among Gen Z (51.5%), Hispanic/Latino (48.7%), Black/African-American (43.2%), Millennials (41.6%), and parents of school-aged children (41.0%).

Geographically, travelers in the Northeast show above-average interest (31.4%), while those in the Midwest show lower interest (22.9%). Preferred destinations for World Cup travel are primarily coastal cities, with Los Angeles (32.4%) and New York City (30.1%) leading, followed by Miami, Dallas, and San Francisco. Interest is strongest among those living near host cities, indicating that local and regional travelers will be a key source of demand for World Cup-related travel.

Key Trends Shaping 2026 Travel

American travelers identified three main trends they expect to influence travel in 2026:

1. Technology and AI Adoption: Nearly two-thirds believe artificial intelligence will continue to impact travel. Dynamic pricing powered by AI and AI-based trip planning tools are expected to become more common.

2. Political and Perception Risks: A majority think international destinations may become less welcoming to Americans and that international visitors may avoid the U.S. due to political issues. However, less than half expect travelers to actively choose or avoid destinations based on personal political beliefs.

3. Cost-Driven Behavior: Cost pressures are significant, with 73.2% expecting budget-friendly destinations to grow in popularity and 71.6% anticipating higher travel costs due to inflation. Many also foresee increased interest in less crowded, off-the-beaten-path destinations as travelers seek value.

Conclusion

In summary, American travelers are approaching 2026 with a focus on value, careful financial management, and selective travel choices. While economic caution is influencing both expectations and behaviors, travel remains a priority for many. The year ahead is likely to be defined by shorter planning windows, fewer but more intentional trips, and growing interest in technology-enabled and cost-effective travel solutions. For travel brands and destinations, aligning with these evolving preferences will be crucial in meeting traveler needs in 2026.

Discover more at Future Partners.