Are we getting an early spring? Here’s how Quebec’s Groundhog Day predictions turned out

If you’re a Groundhog Day believer, Fred la marmotte just delivered some much-needed good news for Quebec this morning.

The famous groundhog from Val-d’Espoir in the Gaspésie didn’t see his shadow on the morning of February 2, which according to Groundhog Day tradition means spring will arrive early this year. For Quebecers who’ve been dealing with a brutal winter — including last week’s polar vortex that made Montreal feel like a deep freezer — that prediction is exactly what people wanted to hear.

How the tradition works

The premise is pretty straightforward. If the groundhog sees his shadow, legend says there’ll be six more weeks of winter. No shadow means spring comes early.

The tradition goes back centuries, with roots in medieval Europe where farmers believed hedgehogs emerging from their burrows to hunt insects was a sign of early spring. In North America, the custom has been going strong since the 19th century.

Roberto Blondin, mayor of Saint-Thérèse-de-Gaspé and organizer of Val-d’Espoir’s Festival de la marmotte, swears by Fred’s accuracy. He claims Fred has an 80% success rate, which is among the best of any groundhog in North America.

However, this Fred is actually the second one. The original died in 2023, but Val-d’Espoir has kept the tradition alive with his successor.

Other groundhogs weighed in too

Fred wasn’t alone in predicting an early spring. Wiarton Willie in Ontario also didn’t see his shadow Monday morning.

Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam was supposed to make her prediction too, but it got cancelled because of a winter storm. The provincial government said blowing snow would create unsafe driving conditions for anyone trying to get to the Shubenacadie Wildlife Park. Since Sam didn’t see a shadow, folklore says that also counts as an early spring prediction.

Down in Pennsylvania, though, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning six more weeks of winter for the U.S.

The Almanac tells a different story

Here’s where things get interesting. Fred’s optimistic forecast doesn’t exactly line up with what the Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting for Quebec.

The 200-year-old publication — which bases its forecasts on solar activity, planetary cycles, and historical climate data — is calling for a cooler and wetter spring than usual. April is expected to hit around 9°C (below normal) with about 90 mm of precipitation, including both snow and rain.

May doesn’t look much better, with temperatures around 11°C (a degree below normal) and roughly 145 mm of precipitation. You’ll probably want to keep that umbrella close by.

So who’s right? Fred and his 80% track record, or the Almanac with its centuries of data?

The spring equinox hits on March 20, so we won’t have to wait too long to find out. After the winter Quebec has had, a lot of people are hoping Fred knows what he’s talking about.

This article is adapted from “Jour de la Marmotte 2026 : voici les prédictions sur l’arrivée du printemps au Québec” which was published on Narcity.