Visitor Arrival Projections
The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), in partnership with the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, has released its Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028: Mid-Year Update. The report covers 39 destinations and projects international visitor arrivals (IVAs) in the Asia Pacific region to reach 714.9 million in 2026, 758.8 million in 2027, and 789.2 million in 2028. By 2028, arrivals are expected to reach 115.6% of 2019 levels, indicating that the region will move beyond recovery and into a new phase of tourism expansion.
Destination Performance and Growth Rates
The report identifies significant differences in growth rates among Asia Pacific destinations. Among the region’s ten largest destinations, Vietnam is forecast to have the highest growth between 2025 and 2027, with IVAs increasing by 31.2% to 27.8 million. Other destinations with notable growth include Macao, China (+19.4%), Japan (+15.8%), Hong Kong SAR (+13.9%), Türkiye (+12.7%), and Malaysia (+11.6%).
China, which remains the largest destination in the region, is projected to receive 157.8 million arrivals in 2027, with growth of 2.2% over 2025 levels. Thailand and the USA are also expected to see more moderate gains of 5.2% and 9.0%, respectively. The report notes that this reflects increasing competition and a more mature growth phase for these larger markets.
Recovery Compared to 2019 Levels
Mongolia is forecast to achieve the highest recovery rate by 2028, reaching 177.8% of its 2019 arrival levels. Japan, the Maldives, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka are also expected to surpass their pre-pandemic benchmarks. Thailand is projected to return to its pre-pandemic level only by 2028. The USA, Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, Myanmar, and several Pacific Island destinations are forecast to remain in recovery mode through the end of the forecast period.
Of the 39 destinations analyzed, approximately 27 are projected to exceed pre-pandemic arrival volumes in 2027, rising to 30 in 2028.
Outbound Source Markets
The forecast highlights China as the largest outbound source market in the Asia Pacific region for 2027, generating nearly 127 million visitor arrivals. The USA is projected to follow with 65.2 million outbound visitors. Both markets are expected to grow by about 18% compared to 2025. Korea (ROK), Canada, and Mexico are also identified as significant outbound markets, though with varying growth rates.
Risks and Opportunities
The report outlines several risks that could affect tourism growth, including geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, fuel prices, aviation costs, and air connectivity challenges. Inflation and higher living costs in source markets may impact discretionary travel spending, especially among middle-income and long-haul travelers.
Opportunities for continued growth include expanding airline networks, airport developments, improved visa facilitation, and strengthening intra-regional travel demand.
Forecast Methodology and Access
The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028: Mid-Year Update provides annual and quarterly forecasts for 39 destinations, with analysis of source markets, destination trends, and macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The report is available for purchase on the PATA website and is also accessible as a complimentary benefit for eligible PATA members.
