Canadian immigrants are leaving in record numbers, particularly the high-skilled immigrants “Canada urgently needs,” according to a new report.
The Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC) released what it says are “concerning” findings in its second “Leaky Bucket” study conducted by the Conference Board of Canada on Tuesday.
“These are tradespeople who build our homes, nurses who care for our loved ones, truckers who facilitate commerce and entrepreneurs who spur innovation,” said ICC CEO Daniel Bernhard, in a statement. “And they are increasingly headed out the door.”
The study found that the proportion of immigrants leaving Canada — also known as onward migration — has reached an “all-time high.”
“The most recent available data — from 2020 — shows annual onward migration rising to the highest recorded percentage in the previous 20 years,” reads the report.
On average, Canadian immigrants who landed since 1982 are leaving at an annual rate of 0.9 per cent, it added.
ICC
According to the Conference Board of Canada’s findings, most onward migrants (34 per cent) leave within the first five years after arrival. The remaining Canadian immigrants leave between six and 20 years, with just 12 per cent leaving between 21 and 38 years.
“This emphasizes how important the early years after arrival are when determining
an immigrant’s long-term settlement trajectory,” reads the report.
The ICC used this weighted rate to determine the impact of onward migration on future cohorts.
ICC
For example, based on the Canadian government’s 2025 to 2027 immigration target of 395,000 permanent residents in 2025, the ICC forecasts 0.8 per cent (3,225) of those immigrants will leave after one year, 1 per cent (3,954 and 3,870) after two to three years, 1.1 per cent (4,221) after four years, and 1.2 per cent (4,799) after five years.
“Overall, 5.1 per cent (or 25,500) of the 395,000 planned permanent resident admissions in 2025 are expected to leave by 2030,” reads the report.
The report delved deeper into the characteristics of those immigrants who are leaving Canada in greater and greater numbers.
It found that Francophone immigrants in Quebec and Ontario are much more likely than Anglophone immigrants to leave Canada to seek opportunities elsewhere.
Moreover, the most populous cities in Canada, like Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, are seeing higher turnover rates of immigrants.
This mirrors a recent survey from the Angus Reid Institute, which found that an alarming number of immigrants want to leave provinces like B.C. and Ontario due to high housing costs.
In contrast, fast-growing, mid-sized cities in other provinces like Calgary, Halifax and Moncton see lower turnover rates, but have potentially greater challenges retaining immigrants in communities outside of larger cities, according to the report.
The Atlantic provinces see the highest rates of onward migration in Canada in the shorter term (three to seven years after arrival), but the lowest rates in the long term (25 years and more after arrival).
The study also found that the highest two origin nations of immigrants leaving Canada are a combination of countries allowing dual citizenship (like Lebanon) and those restricting citizenship only to that country (like South Korea).
This report comes as Canadians’ support for immigration sharply declines, with public opinion reaching its lowest level in decades.
