Europol imagines robot crime waves in 2035

Rapid advances in AI and robotics are set to become both powerful tools for police and potent weapons for criminals, a 48-page report from pan-European police agency Europol argues. Earlier this month, Europol’s Innovation Lab published “The Unmanned Future(s): The impact of robotics and unmanned systems on law enforcement.” The document is framed as more of a “foresight” exercise than a hard prediction. It sketches the near future of 2035, where intelligent machines are everywhere, from homes, hospitals, and factories to police stations, shops, and schools.

Researchers from The Hague-based organization, effectively an EU-version of the global police agency Interpol, imagine hypothetical scenarios such as widespread resentment over job losses and automation bubbling over into civil unrest, “bot-bashing,” and populist riots demanding society “put people first.” Another outlines emerging questions like whether people will eventually see hitting a robot as some form of abuse — an argument that’s already broken out several times over robot dogs — that, left unresolved, could create tensions between police and the public.

On the other side, Europol’s predictions suggest that the future’s ubiquitous robots will be perpetrators of crime, too. Care robots, such as those used in hospitals or the homes of disabled or elderly people, could be hijacked to spy on families, harvest sensitive information, and even manipulate victims or groom children. Autonomous vehicles or drones could also be hacked, the report warns, leaking sensitive data or being used as a physical weapon. Swarms of drones, possibly scavenged from war zones like Ukraine, the report envisions, could be used by terrorists to attack cities, by rival gangs to fight over territory with homemade explosives, or by other bad actors to monitor police activity and gain an edge over law enforcement.

The report continues in an increasingly theoretical manner, suggesting that future robots are likely to give police a tough time. “Questioning” them could be a nightmare, and the researchers warn it will become increasingly difficult to distinguish “between intentional and accidental behaviour” when bots behave badly, noting the difficulties police already face in crashes involving driverless cars. The researchers imagine police seizing rogue robots with “RoboFreezer guns” and using “nets with built-in grenades” to snare drones won’t end the threat. Once inside police facilities, robots might “record, steal, destroy or escape,” the researchers say.

As far-fetched as some of these predictions sound, Europol doesn’t think they’re that far off the mark with their vision for 2035. An unnamed Europol spokesperson told The Telegraph the agency “can’t predict the future” but did try to “anticipate plausible future scenarios that enable us to make more informed decisions today.” Europol did not respond to The Verge’s request for an interview.

The signs are already here, the researchers say. Smugglers of drugs and other contraband already use drones and autonomous vehicles in their operations — prisons are a frequent target and, remember the Starlink-equipped narco submarine? — and terrorists are showing signs of doing the same. There’s also a growing market of drone pilots advertising their skills to criminals online, the report claims. Increased funding for training and education in relevant areas, access to the latest technology, and a shift “from 2D to 3D policing” (on account of drones) will be needed for police to keep up with criminals in the future, the report recommends.

Catherine De Bolle, Europol’s executive director, writes:

“The integration of unmanned systems into crime is already here, and we have to ask ourselves how criminals and terrorists might use drones and robots some years from now. Just as the internet and smartphones presented significant opportunities as well as challenges, so will this technology. Our new report by Europol’s Innovation Lab explores the future operating environment for European law enforcement agencies and suggests actions needed today in order to effectively combat crime while upholding public trust and fundamental rights tomorrow.”

Robotics experts The Verge spoke to were less certain about the kind of rapid uptake Europol’s researchers imagine, or that the technology itself is the main problem. Martim Brandão, a lecturer in robotics and autonomous systems at King’s College London, says it’s certainly plausible to imagine issues like surveillance and blackmailing surrounding hacked care or home robots given their sheer numbers and reliance on the internet. Similar incidents have already occurred. “I’m not as confident about the other predictions,” he says, such as terrorist attacks using scavenged drones or violent human responses to machine automation, explaining that he’s not aware of the evidence supporting the claims.

Giovanni Luca Masala, a roboticist and lecturer in computer science at the University of Kent in England, says “predictions about the year 2035 are difficult” given the speed at which new technology is being developed. Adoption is not just about the technology, either, he says. It also “depends also on the market, the cost, the ability to produce en masse,” all of which could prevent the kind of robotic uptake imagined in Europol’s report.

That said, Masala says he agrees with the overall recommendations of Europol’s researchers. “One way or another, criminals will use any kind of new technology,” he says, adding that society needs to invest in police equipment and training for AI, robotics, and cybersecurity. “Because if you have a policeman that barely uses equipment like a drone, you can’t compete with a skilled enemy.”

But for all the speculation about how police and criminals might use robots in the future, Brandão thinks Europol’s report overlooks one of the most important issues we’re going to face: holding police accountable. “The report talks about the potential for exploitation of privacy and security issues of home robots by potential criminals, which I agree with, but they don’t talk about the potential for police forces themselves to invade privacy and exploit or create security vulnerabilities.” Given the “numerous cases of police misconduct and discriminatory surveillance,” it’s vital to consider those risks as well, he says. “I’m more concerned about police and intelligence agencies exploiting robot vulnerabilities than terrorists, especially given the ongoing authoritarian shifts across the world.”