It’s the year every year, right? Every April, we Torontonians share the collective delusion that the Stanley Cup (no, not that one) is coming home after many, many decades away. For years, the Maple Leafs have been plagued with a curse: failing (often miserably, publicly, unbelievably) to make the second round of the playoffs.
Earlier this year, a friend of mine ridiculed me for dismissing a tennis player because he “isn’t a killer.” I was being dramatic, but also not — this predator-prey analogy applies to athletes playing all sports. Commentators harped on Rory McIlroy’s penchant for choking at the elusive Masters all weekend before he finally won the tournament on Sunday night, completing his career grand slam. It isn’t simply enough to want to win — which professional athlete plays to lose? — but it’s a matter of how bad you really want it. Leafs fans understand this sentiment all too well. As the playoff season roll around once again, the question of whether this iteration of the Maple Leafs has what it takes returns. Are the Leafs killers? So far, the answer has been not quite, but there’s always this year.
Whether you follow all the games and know the stats religiously or you’re more of a playoff bandwagoner or legacy Leafs fan, here’s your guide to the Maple Leafs before the NHL playoff season begins on Saturday.
The basics
The first round playoff series will see the Toronto Maple Leafs face off against the Ottawa Senators. This may bode well for the Leafs: the storied “Battle of Ontario” has historically always ended in Toronto’s favour, with the Leafs emerging victorious from every playoff series against the Senators. However, the most recent of those encounters was over two decades ago, in 2004, in which the Leafs clinched a Game 7 win in the first round. Since then, the Leafs have only advanced past the first round once, in 2023 with a 4-2 series win against Tampa Bay Lightning. And our record this season against the Senators hasn’t been pretty — Ottawa won all three regular season matches, the most recent March home game ending with a 4-2 score for the Senators.
A full schedule hasn’t been announced yet, but the first game of the series is said to be happening this Sunday, April 20, where Toronto will get the home ice advantage. The following game will take place on April 22.
Where the Leafs stand
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ record has seen a slight uptick over this past season — 56 wins in 2022, dipping to 50 in 2023 and 46 in 2024, now 51 in 2025 so far — and they’ve prioritized playing well.
At face value, this Leafs team may not appear that fundamentally different from last year’s, but off-season additions and a bolstered blue line may be what transforms good regular season hockey into great postseason hockey. Hometown boy Chris Tanev has played exceptionally and Simon Benoit has battled his way to an NHL contract this season with his gritty play; together they round out a great first defensive line. Morgan Reilly hasn’t played well in the playoffs as of late, but the silver lining here is that between the Leafs’ stellar first line and the additions Brandon Carlo and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, they’ve made the right adjustments to compensate. From a goaltending perspective, quality is not an issue. Both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll perform well — Stolarz is a Stanley Cup champion, after all — but the Leafs’ strategy this season has been to not select a starter. Woll played well while Stolarz was injured, but you run a risk by not prescribing roles to your players. Without a clear delineation between the two, lines get blurred and it may prove difficult for either to lock in sufficiently when the time arises.
Does any of this matter, though, if nobody scores? This season has been marked by some significant accomplishments by star players. Here’s where we stand after Tuesday night: Mitch Marner’s first 100-point season; Auston Matthews is the sixth fastest player to 400 goals; William Nylander scored a career-high 45 goals. Though these quantifiable achievements are great, history has proven that it is unwise to solely rely on your stars for playoff success. The hope is that Matthew Knies and Nick Robertson are able to step up and fill in the gaps where necessary as they’ve done all season. Max Domi was brought into the fold in 2023 to bring some solid playoff experience as he’s known to do well under pressure. Here’s hoping these expectations are not in vain.
A history-making Atlantic division win
After Tuesday night’s win, the Leafs have won the Atlantic division for the first time in franchise history. Winning is great, but this title comes with a material benefit: home ice advantage. The issue remains whether the Leafs are able to capitalize on this once playoffs begin. Historically, the Leafs’ regular season home record is quite good, but they haven’t played particularly well at home in the postseason: since 2021, they’ve gone 6-16 at home, which is frankly not ideal if their aim is to not only make it to the second round but to win the Cup. It’s much easier to play when your back’s not against the wall, which is how they were forced to play last year when they won only one single playoff game at home. Avoiding do-or-die games on enemy ice is only possible if the Leafs are able to secure home victories.
The problem with breaking a curse is that nothing really changes. If the years following an event mirror those that precede it, what difference does it make? Breaking a curse looks more like a fluke than a franchise-altering achievement if what results is more of the lackluster sameness. Losing in the first round last year, the Leafs are looking down the same barrel of the same gun that’s been staring them in the face for the last decade. What did Einstein say about insanity again?
