Toronto Maple Leafs fans line up in a snowstorm as they wait to enter Scotiabank arena ahead of a game against the Colorado Avalanche in Toronto earlier this year.Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press
Your favourite artist is coming to town, or your favourite team is heading to the playoffs – you want to go, but don’t want to pay top dollar. Here’s your dilemma: Do you buy tickets now or wait until closer to the show in hopes prices will fall?
Major ticket companies increasingly employ dynamic pricing models, which allow prices to change in real time based on factors like demand. As a result, consumers looking to get a good deal may not know the best times to buy.
“At the end of the day, when we’re talking about prices, it is just consumer demand and so almost always when there are groans about ticket prices, it’s just because the event is super popular and a lot of people really want to go to it,” said David Clement, the North American affairs manager with the Consumer Choice Center.
He pointed to high ticket prices for Blue Jays games during the World Series last year, when “everybody and their uncle wanted to go.”
“That’s just a natural consequence of when you have an increased demand and a fixed supply,” Clement said.
Leading up to Game 1 of the World Series, some of the lowest prices for verified resale tickets on Ticketmaster clocked in at $1,843, with some of the more expensive tickets exceeding a whopping $10,000.
The cost to attend major sporting events continues to be an issue, as tickets to see Canada’s first game at this summer’s FIFA World Cup remain pricey.
The issue of ticket prices has come to the forefront recently, with the Ontario and Quebec governments taking actions intended to crack down on ticket resale prices.
While not all event tickets in Canada are subject to dynamic pricing, the practice is commonly used by some of the large companies in the space.
Tadziu Krawiec waves a Blue Jays flag as fans line up outside of Rogers Centre before the start of Game 6 of the 2025 World Series in Toronto.Duane Cole/The Globe and Mail
Based on data from the U.S. market, which Clement said is comparable with Canada due to its similar structure, ticket prices can fluctuate greatly.
An analysis from SeatData.io in February examined 307,727 concert ticket sales and found that day-of tickets had the lowest median price at US$99. Meanwhile, it found prices peak about two to four weeks before an event at a median of US$162. It said the sweet spots for buying was about 90 days early or the last one or two days before an event.
The analysis also found that Saturdays were typically the cheapest days of the week for purchases and March is the cheapest month, with prices about 67 per cent less expensive compared with peak prices in September.
“Rule No. 1 is if the sellout risk is high, you should probably buy early, because the chances are tickets are going to get snapped up and demand tends to go up as the event approaches since the hype factor,” said personal finance expert Preet Banerjee.
“Rule No. 2 is if the event is liquid and replaceable, waiting often can help. So, regular season sports, some lower demand artists, these would be your typical more liquid and replaceable events.”
For example, he said ticket prices for a Taylor Swift concert are likely to continue to rise ahead of the event, but tickets for sports teams with a lot of home games may get cheaper closer to game day.
With dynamic pricing models, Banerjee said the indicators companies look at to determine ticket prices have become very sophisticated. He said companies look at factors like the velocity of ticket sales, win streaks for professional sports teams, current player performances and even weather.
Leading up to more recurring events, like lower demand artists or some regular season sports games, Banerjee said resellers are competing against each other to offload tickets, because anything unused is ultimately worth nothing.
“The price can drop dramatically. So if you’re flexible, that’s your best choice if you want to try and get the best deal. If you’re a die-hard fan, you should probably just buy early,” he said.
Banerjee said that as the gap between higher- and lower-income earners continues to rise, people who have more disposable income are willing to spend a lot more for event tickets, which drives prices up for everyone else. Die-hard fans are also willing to pay premiums, he said.
While much of the focus on dynamic ticket pricing relates to higher prices, Clement said people sometimes forget that prices can also go down.
“Tickets can become dramatically more expensive, they can also become significantly less expensive, at the same time. I emphasize that because policymakers almost always focus on when dynamic pricing and when ticket prices go up, but they always ignore that they also go down,” he said.