The 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, a brief but intense escalation between two nuclear-armed rivals, unfolded from April 22 to May 7. Triggered by a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, the conflict saw diplomatic breakdowns, border skirmishes, and a significant Indian Air Force (IAF) incursion into Pakistan, code-named Operation Sindoor.
This article outlines the chronology of events and highlights the largest aerial battle since WWII that occurred on May 7. We will discuss the fact that neither nation’s air force crossed into each other’s airspace, while exchanging significant fire over the horizon and across their mutual border. Operation Sindoor marks the first major military engagement in history that pitted European and Chinese aerospace technologies against each other. The Chinese tech came out as the winner.
This event will undoubtedly embolden the People’s Republic of China (PRC) going forward, while reinforcing the urgency to reinvest in military R&D across the European military industrial complex.
April 22 – the Pahalgam Massacre
The conflict’s catalyst was a terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, near Pahalgam in the Anantnag district of Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. Known as the Pahalgam Massacre, the attack targeted a group of tourists in the scenic Baisaran Valley, killing 26 civilians – 25 Indian tourists, mostly Hindus, and one Nepali national – and injuring more than 20 others.
The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Pakistan-based, UN-designated terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), initially claimed responsibility but later retracted the claim. India accused Pakistan of sponsoring the militants, alleging that LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) were harboured by Islamabad, a charge Pakistan denied, with its defence ministry suggesting that the attack might be a “false flag operation” by India to justify aggression.
April 23–29 – diplomatic fallout and border skirmishes
In the immediate aftermath, tensions soared. On April 23, India implemented retaliatory measures, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, terminating visa-free travel with Pakistan, and closing the Attari border crossing.
These actions marked a severe downgrade in bilateral relations.
Armed skirmishes erupted along the Line of Control (LoC) starting April 24, with near-daily exchanges of small-arms fire reported. Both nations issued travel advisories. Russia and the UK warned citizens against traveling to the region, citing heightened security risks, while protests by the Indian diaspora outside Pakistan’s High Commission in London underscored global concern.
Pakistan denied involvement in the Pahalgam attack and called for an international investigation, a proposal India dismissed. On April 25, Iran offered to mediate, aiming for de-escalation, but neither side accepted.
By April 30, Pakistan’s military claimed an Indian strike was imminent, reflecting intelligence of heightened Indian military activity along the border.
May 1-6 – escalating tension and preparations
The first week of May saw continued border skirmishes, with both sides accusing each other of ceasefire violations. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to punish the backers of the Pahalgam attack “beyond their imagination,” signaling a robust military response.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif warned of retaliation if targeted, insisting any response would focus on military, not civilian, targets.
Both nations had upgraded their arsenals since their 2019 clash – India with 36 French-made Rafale jets and Russia’s S-400 air defense system, and Pakistan with Chinese J-10C jets equipped with PL-15 missiles and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones.
Some military experts noted that these advancements increased the risk of escalation, as both sides believed they held a tactical advantage.
May 7 – Operation Sindoor and the aerial clash
On May 7, India launched Operation Sindoor, a military campaign targeting nine alleged terrorist sites linked to LeT and JeM in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The operation began in the early hours, between 1:05 and 1:30 a.m. IST, with missile and air strikes.
The IAF deployed Rafale aircraft, using SCALP missiles and AASM Hammer glide bombs, alongside the Indian Army’s artillery regiment, which fired precision Excalibur rounds and loitering munitions.
Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafale (French manufactured) multi-role fighter equipped with European air-to-air missiles and external fuel tanks.
India claimed the strikes targeted only militant infrastructure, including a JeM camp in Bahawalpur historically linked to the 2002 murder of journalist Daniel Pearl, resulting in the death of JeM commander Abdul Rauf Azhar.
Pakistan reported that the strikes hit civilian areas, including mosques, killing 31 civilians and injuring 57.
In response, Pakistan’s army launched a mortar attack on Poonch in Jammu, killing one Indian soldier and 16 civilians, including women and children, and injuring 43. This marked the heaviest shelling in the region since the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War.
The exchange on May 7 was the largest aerial engagement since WWII, involving approximately 125 fighter jets.
India likely deployed French Rafales, Russian MiG-29s and Su-30MKIs, and Heron drones, while Pakistan utilized Chinese J-10C and JF-17 jets.
Neither side’s aircraft crossed into the other’s airspace, engaging in a “standoff” battle at distances up to 150 km, using long-range air-to-air missiles such as the Chinese PL-15 (Pakistan) and UK Meteor (India).
These missiles represent the cutting edge of each nation’s air-to-air weaponry.
Pakistan claimed to have downed six Indian aircraft – three Rafales, one MiG-29, one Su-30MKI, and a Heron UAV – using J-10Cs, a claim partially supported by U.S. officials who assessed with “high confidence” that at least two Indian jets (one Rafale) were downed.
Pakistani Air Force (PAF) J-10C multi-role fighter equipped with Chinese air-to-air missiles and external fuel tanks.
The Washington Post identified three crash sites in India, confirming two as a Rafale and a French Mirage 2000, with local sources reporting three pilots hospitalized. India neither confirmed nor denied these losses but claimed to have intercepted Pakistani jets, displaying wreckage of what it said was a Mirage III or Mirage 5 outside Indian borders.
Pakistan reported one of its aircraft suffered “minor damage.”
Destructive impact of the IAF incursion
The IAF incursion inflicted significant damage on Pakistani military infrastructure. Satellite imagery analysis confirmed strikes on six airfields, including Nur Khan, Bholari, Shahbaz, Sukkur, Sarghoda, and Rahim Yar Khan, damaging three hangars, two runways, and two mobile control centres. At Bholari, a hangar housing a Saab 2000 AEW&C aircraft was hit, though it is unclear if the plane was destroyed.
The strikes, some 160 km inside Pakistan, were the most extensive on Pakistani military infrastructure since 1971, aimed at degrading air capabilities. However, the damage was not devastating – runways were cratered for temporary disruption and no aircraft were confirmed destroyed in hangars.
Relative to aircraft losses, India’s operation came at a steep cost.
Credible evidence suggests India lost at least three jets (Rafale, Mirage 2000, and possibly a third), with estimates ranging up to six per Pakistani claims. Assuming a conservative three losses, the IAF’s operation damaged six airfields and killed a senior JeM commander, but at the cost of losing advanced jets worth many millions each (e.g., a Rafale costs ~$100 million).
The IAF’s destructive impact, while notable, was thus offset by the high cost of losing 3-6 jets, representing a significant operational and financial setback, especially given the Rafale’s first combat loss to a Chinese J-10C, which boosted China’s defense industry credibility as the PAF reported just one jet with minor damage.
Critical Analysis
The May 7 aerial battle between 125 IAF and PAF fighters marks the first known major military engagement opportunity for the Chinese military industrial complex to battle-prove their capabilities against western tech. Specifically, the J-10C Gen IV multi-role fighter – which has been touted by the Chinese as their equivalent to the American F-16 Viper – came away from this battle with a feather in its hat.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) will more than likely finally begin to receive large international orders for its aerospace technologies now that it has been positively demonstrated in combat conditions against the French Rafale and Mirage 2000.
The PRC was so thrilled by the performance of their J-10C fighter against its French and Russian peers operating within the IAF, they immediately extended the offer to sell Pakistan 40 of their Gen V J-35 stealth fighters at a 50% discount in August 2025.
The J-35 is a knockoff of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Gen IV multi-role stealth fighter.
The Chinese P-35 Gen V multi-role stealth fighter.
This announcement by the PRC follows in the wake of the February 2025 Trump Administration’s offer to India to purchase its F-35 Gen V multi-role stealth fighter.
As Europe has yet to field any Gen V stealth aircraft and its top gun appears to have failed against the Chinese J-10C in combat, it is becoming clear that the EU military industrial complex has some catching up to do.
These recent events underscore the role of advanced military weapons in furthering statecraft and geopolitical interests. Likewise, it shows that both the United States and China view the Pakistan-Indian theatre as integral in their over-arching geopolitical strategy for the Indo-Pacific and Middle East.
The large-scale aerial battle on May 7 highlights the increasingly important role played by long-range, over-the-horizon, air-to-air weaponry. While the Chinese PL-15 air-to-air missile is limited to less than 145 km for exports, its range within the People’s Liberal Army (PLA) is said to be between 200 and 300 km.
The AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM) is the new American equivalent to China’s PL-15. Developed by Lockheed Martin, the AIM-260 is designed to replace the AIM-120 AMRAAM and provide greater range and capability to counter advanced threats such as the Chinese J-20 Gen V air superiority stealth fighter.
How these over-the-horizon, air-to-air missiles will integrate with emerging broad spectrum stealth Gen VI fighters is to yet be determined. Will this range have any practical meaning when applied against super stealthy targets?
Furthermore, with engagement capabilities so greatly extended, it raises questions on the future of traditional dogfighting carried out by manned aircraft.
Finally, it seems that Pakistan and India may be becoming the staging ground for a proxy-war between China and United States, as Ukraine has been between Russia and the United States-led western bloc.
