Frontmezzjunkies Tries to Predict: The Winners of the 2026 Tony Awards
By Ross
For theatre lovers, Tony Sunday always feels like how the Super Bowl feels for sports fans. It’s a little like opening night all over again. Months of performances, conversations, surprises, and passionate debates finally narrow themselves into a number of sealed envelopes waiting to be opened. Every season tells its own story, but tonight that story belongs to possibility. The shows have played their parts. The critics have weighed in (you can read my reviews of each show by clicking on the highlighted show name). And the audiences have stood and applauded for their favourites. Now Broadway voters must decide on which heads the crowns will be placed.
This year’s races feel especially difficult to predict. Some categories appear almost settled, while others could turn on a single unexpected announcement. Schmigadoon! enters the evening looking every bit like the production to beat, though The Lost Boys has built enough momentum and creative admiration to emerge as a genuine spoiler. Elsewhere, revivals, designers, directors, and performers have produced a season where excellence often outnumbers available trophies, making certainty a dangerous betting business.
That uncertainty is part of the fun. Every prediction is equal parts observation, instinct, and wishful thinking, informed by what has unfolded across the Broadway season but always vulnerable to a surprise that changes the conversation. Before the ceremony begins later this evening (5pm ET), these are the names and productions I believe will hear theirs called when Broadway celebrates its biggest night of the year.
So let the public game of speculation begin here with my predictions for the 2026 Tony Awards.
✅ – who I think will win (2pts)
🤞– who I really want to win (1pt)
🏆 – who DID end up winning
Below is the full list of nominees. Check back after the ceremony to see how these predictions held up, both in total score and category by category. By the end of the night, Broadway will have its winners, and we’ll see just how foolish or fortunate these bets turned out to be.
Best Play
The Balusters, David Lindsay-Abaire
Giant, Mark Rosenblatt
✅🤞 Liberation, Bess Wohl
Little Bear Ridge Road, Samuel D. Hunter
Best Musical
The Lost Boys
✅🤞 Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Best Revival of a Play
✅ Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Becky Shaw
Every Brilliant Thing
Fallen Angels
🤞 Oedipus
Best Revival of a Musical
✅ Cats: The Jellicle Ball
🤞 Ragtime
Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
🤞 Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
✅ Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
✅ Caissie Levy, Ragtime
🤞 Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Will Harrison, Punch
🤞 Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
✅ John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
🤞 Susannah Flood, Liberation
✅ Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels
Best Book of a Musical
The Lost Boys, David Hornsby and Chris Hoch
✅ Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
🤞 Titaníque; Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, Caroline Shaw
August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Steve Bargonetti
The Lost Boys, The Rescues
✅ Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
🤞 Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus
🤞 Takeshi Kata, Bug
✅ Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
David Rockwell, Fallen Angels
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
dots, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
✅ Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
🤞 Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!
Best Costume Design of a Play
Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon
✅ Qween Jean, Liberation
🤞 Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Emilio Sosa, The Balusters
Paul Tazewell, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Best Costume Design of a Musical
🤞 Linda Cho, Ragtime
Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!
✅ Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ryan Park, The Lost Boys
David I. Reynoso, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon
Natasha Chivers, Oedipus
Stacey Derosier, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
🤞 Heather Gilbert, Bug
Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13
✅ Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
🤞 Kevin Adams, Chess
Jane Cox, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!
Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design), Ragtime
✅ Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Best Sound Design of a Play
Justin Ellington, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
🤞 Tom Gibbons, Oedipus
Lee Kinney, The Fear of 13
Josh Schmidt, Bug
✅ Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
🤞 Kai Harada, Ragtime
✅ Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys
Brian Ronan, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon!
Best Direction of a Play
Nicholas Hytner, Giant
🤞 Robert Icke, Oedipus
Kenny Leon, The Balusters
✅ Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
🤞 Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
✅ Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Choreography
🤞 Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Ellenore Scott, Ragtime
Ani Taj, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
✅ Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys
Best Orchestrations
✅ Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!
Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne “AG” Gonzalez, and Gabriel Mann; The Lost Boys
Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
🤞 Brian Usifer, Chess
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder, and Doug Schadt; Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
🤞 Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Marylouise Burke, The Balusters
Aya Cash, Giant
✅ Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Christopher Abbott, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot
✅ 🤞 Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
✅ Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
🤞 Hannah Cruz, Chess
Rachel Dratch, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
✅ Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Bryce Pinkham, Chess
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
🤞 Layton Williams, Titaníque
