Global Hotel Industry Faces Economic Headwinds with Mixed Growth Prospects for 2025, According to STR/Tourism Economics

The STR/TE Hotel Market Forecast for May 2025 presents a detailed analysis of the expected performance in the hotel industry across Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. The report highlights modest growth in Europe, stronger performance in the Middle East, and mixed outcomes in the Asia Pacific region due to various economic pressures and market dynamics.

European Market Overview

The forecast for Europe shows a slight increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) by 1.7% in 2025, a decrease from the previously projected 2.4%. This adjustment is primarily due to a slower demand growth, despite a robust events calendar in 2024. Notably, 21 out of 31 markets have seen reduced occupancy growth expectations. However, hotel rates have remained relatively stable, with 18 markets anticipating increases in the average daily rate (ADR).

The UK market appears more vulnerable, with potential declines in ADR influenced by economic factors such as higher inflation and changes in corporate travel budgets. The appreciation of the GBP against the USD is also expected to impact international travel costs, potentially reducing demand from price-sensitive markets.

Asia Pacific Dynamics

In the Asia Pacific, the forecast anticipates a 3.0% increase in RevPAR for 2025, driven mainly by ADR rather than occupancy. The region faces challenges, particularly in Mainland China, where economic uncertainty and a potential tariff war with the U.S. are affecting corporate travel. Conversely, markets like Singapore and Tokyo are experiencing varied impacts based on international travel dynamics and local events, such as Expo 2025 in Osaka, which has significantly boosted hotel rates in Tokyo during the event’s opening month.

Middle East Performance

The Middle East continues to exceed expectations, with a notable RevPAR growth of 5.4% projected for 2025. This growth is largely driven by rate increases rather than occupancy. The UAE markets, particularly Dubai and Abu Dhabi, perform strongly due to a more established supply base and modest pipeline developments. However, the impact of Ramadan varies across the region, with less effect in the UAE due to increased Westernization and more significant impacts in Saudi markets like Riyadh.

Long-term Global Outlook

Looking ahead, the global hotel market is expected to see continued growth from 2027 through 2029, with minimal adjustments to the forecasts. The long-term outlook remains stable, with demand and RevPAR expected to rise annually, although high supply growth could pose challenges in some markets.

While challenges are ahead, particularly in Europe and Asia Pacific, the Middle East is poised for continued strong performance. Hoteliers and investors must carefully navigate these varying regional dynamics to optimize their strategies in the coming years.

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