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Here are the chances of Southern Ontario getting a white Christmas this year

5 Mins Read

Last year was a complete letdown for those hoping for a white Christmas in Southern Ontario, with the previous holiday season feeling far less merry than it should, thanks to unseasonably warm conditions.

But with winter 2024-2025 due to be generally more frigid and icy than last, and with the GTA’s first snowfall already behind us, there’s more reason to believe that at least some of the region could end up looking more like a snowglobe by December 25.

Long-range forecasts for the province are mixed, with one calling for “a whirlwind of snow,” another saying winter will “attempt to redeem its reputation,” and one more recently estimating that the cold won’t settle in until after the holidays.

As far as predictions with actual dates attached to them, though, the projections aren’t looking all that festive for the Toronto area currently — though other parts of Southern Ontario are a whole different story.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s 60-day outlook from last week shows “rain or snow showers” and “not as cold” temperatures in Southern Ontario for the days leading up to Christmas week, followed by sunny and warm weather from December 20-28.

It isn’t until December 29 that the authority calls for thermometers to drop again, after what has been a cold and snowy start to the month.

Still, these are fairly non-specific and early forecasts, with the Almanac still anticipating lots of precipitation over the course of the month (80 mm total, which is 20 mm more than average), and an average temperature of – 2 C in December, which is two degrees warmer than usual, but still cold enough for snow to stick.

Another trusted source, The Weather Network (TWN), has daily weather forecasts for the next two weeks that show minimal chances of precipitation and sunny skies around Christmas Day in Toronto.

But, with snow likely from the night of December 19 through December 20 and below zero temps in the days that follow, a dusting is not out of the realm of possibilities, especially if the weather patterns change by then (which, as we all know, is quite likely).

Even as far north as Barrie, though, it doesn’t seem that current 14-day forecasts from TWN show enough snow on and just before December 25 for it to be a “white” Christmas.

And, the odds aren’t really in favour of that result, as Environment and Climate Change Canada Meteorologist (ECCC) Geoff Coulson told blogTO at the beginning of the month.

“It’s important to note, historically, that the odds of a white Christmas in Toronto aren’t that good. The GTA used to have about a 68 per cent chance of white Christmas, but in the last 25 years, we’re down to about 40 per cent,” he said over phone on December 4.

He said at that time that it was still too early to be able to say, noting that “it’s important to know what the weather is going to do the week before Christmas — if we do get enough snow, even if there’s mild weather around Christmas, is there enough for it to stick around?”

Speaking more recently, ECCC meteorologist Trudy Kidd said that it’s still too far out to make a definitive determination and that it’s best to wait until the official forecasts from the government weather body are out the week prior.

Though this is the case for areas like Toronto, speculations about a white Christmas in locales around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay that have now been pummelled with heaps of snow multiple times — such as Gravenhurst, which had to declare a state of emergency over the amount of the white stuff they received last week — can be a little more definitive.

“At this point, I can pretty confidently say that in places that receive significant snowfall, it’s going to take some time to melt, and there are still ongoing snow squalls. There are a lot of areas of Ontario that are in deep snow at the moment, and between now and Christmas, it would take quite a warm-up to make those areas a green Christmas,” Kidd said on Thursday.

“In Toronto, it’s really going to be a coin toss. If you have snow and then rain comes along and melts it all, or if there’s a little warm-up the night or the day before, that’s all it takes. Or conversely, it just takes one cold, low-pressure system to put a little sprinkle down, and there you have it.”

So, don’t put away those waterproof coats, mitts and festive cheer away just yet, because things could still pan out, even if historically warming weather trends aren’t on our side.

Lead photo by

Roy Harris/Shutterstock.com

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