Middle East Travel & Tourism Faces Temporary Headwinds But Remains the World’s Strongest Long-Term Growth Story

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) today highlighted the Middle East’s outlook as a story of short-term disruption and long-term resilience, with the region expected to overcome current challenges and remain one of the world’s strongest Travel & Tourism growth markets.

New forecasts from WTTC’s latest Economic Impact Research (EIR): Global Trends Report, sponsored by Chase Travel, Lead Research Partner, show the Middle East is expected to be the only region worldwide to record a decline in Travel & Tourism GDP in 2026, with the sector forecast to contract by 14.5%, from $386 billion in 2025 to $330 billion. 

The downturn reflects the impact of conflict on airspace and travel flows through a region that serves as a critical global aviation hub, handling around 14% of international passengers worldwide, equivalent to one in every seven travellers.

While the near-term outlook reflects ongoing geopolitical disruption, WTTC’s longer-term projections point to a strong recovery. The Middle East is forecast to become the fastest-growing Travel & Tourism region in the world between 2026 and 2036, with sector GDP expected to expand at an annual rate of 6.3%, reaching $605 billion by 2036.

These forecasts are mainly being driven by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Qatar, which WTTC identifies as tourism growth stories of resilience. Together, these four economies generated $272 billion in Travel & Tourism GDP in 2025 and are projected to reach $435 billion by 2036, adding more than $163 billion to their combined tourism economies.

Saudi Arabia continues to lead the region’s transformation, with Travel & Tourism accounting for 14.1% of GDP and international visitor spending forecast to more than double over the next decade. The UAE remains one of the region’s most mature tourism economies, with Travel & Tourism contributing 11.9% of GDP and supporting 13.6% of total employment, underpinned by world-class connectivity and nearly $57 billion in international visitor spending. 

Oman is expected to see its Travel & Tourism economy expand from $7.9 billion to $12 billion by 2036, reflecting sustained investment and destination development efforts. Meanwhile, Qatar continues to leverage its international appeal, with visitor spending accounting for 94.1% of all services exports, one of the highest tourism export concentrations in the region.

Across these markets, governments are investing heavily in tourism infrastructure, connectivity, visitor experiences, and destination development as part of broader economic diversification strategies. Saudi Arabia remains one of the clearest examples of this commitment, recording 19.4% growth in Travel & Tourism investment in 2025, supported by Vision 2030, investor-friendly reforms, and a pipeline of large-scale tourism projects designed to attract both domestic and international capital. 

WTTC’s research suggests that the region’s long-term outlook is supported by lessons learned from previous crises. Evidence from past conflicts and global disruptions shows that recovery can be both strong and rapid when supported by clear policy responses, close coordination between governments and the private sector, effective communication, and sustained investment.

Gloria Guevara, President & CEO, WTTC, said: “ The Middle East is facing a challenging period, and Travel & Tourism is often among the first sectors to feel the impact of geopolitical disruption. But history repeatedly shows that our sector is remarkably resilient, and few regions have demonstrated that resilience more clearly than the Middle East.”

The governments across this region have made long-term commitments to Travel & Tourism through investment, connectivity, infrastructure, and economic diversification. Those foundations remain firmly in place. While the short-term outlook reflects current realities, the long-term picture is clear: the Middle East is set to be the world’s fastest-growing Travel & Tourism region. Recovery will require continued leadership, coordination, and public-private collaboration, but the region has consistently shown its ability to adapt, recover, and emerge stronger.“