New York Times and Siena College poll shows midterm advantage

WASHINGTON, D.C. – A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows Democrats opening up a significant advantage over Republicans ahead of the November midterms, fueled largely by voter frustration with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

Democrats have advantage

By the numbers:

Republicans currently control both the House and Senate, and Trump has been working to prevent Democrats from flipping either chamber in November, according to the poll, which found likely voters favoring Democratic candidates over Republicans by close to 9 percentage points in their congressional district. 

Trump’s approval rating stood at 38% among likely voters, largely unchanged from the lows it hit after his administration’s confrontation with Iran. 

Independent voters have soured further, with just 10% saying the economy is better today than it was a year ago, and only 27% approving of Trump’s job performance overall. Among independents specifically, 57% said they planned to vote for a Democrat for Congress compared with 34% for a Republican. 

The poll also found voters trust Democrats over Republicans on health care by a 60-36 margin, on immigration by 52-45, and on the cost of living by 51-43.

‘Gold standard’

What they’re saying:

Adam Carlson, a polling expert for Zenith Research, described The New York Times and Siena College poll as “the gold standard of polls” because it relies on live phone calls rather than automated or online methods: a costlier, increasingly rare approach.

However, Carlson also cautioned against reading too much into any single poll and recommended looking at a broad range of surveys for a fuller picture, adding that cost-of-living and affordability concerns have been the common thread across nearly every poll conducted recently, including this one.

Dig deeper:

The poll surveyed 1,503 likely voters from September 8 to 13, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. 

Democrats’ strongest advantage was on health care with a 24-point lead, but they also led on economic issues, foreign policy and immigration. Republicans held a narrow edge only on AI policy.

Why you should care:

Both parties are watching the generic ballot number closely as a leading indicator heading into November, though redistricting in several states and a difficult Senate map for Democrats mean a nearly 9-point edge wouldn’t guarantee control of either chamber.