Earlier this week, the odds of the asteroid impacting Earth on December 22nd, 2032, were closer to 3.1 percent, which was “the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger,” according to the agency.
The latest trajectory estimates come from new observations made after a week of limited visibility caused by a full moon. Ground-based telescopes will continue to track 2024 YR4 until April when its distant orbit will make observations from Earth impossible until it approaches again in 2028. The James Webb Space Telescope’s infrared capabilities will be used in March and May to observe the asteroid’s movements. Data gathered by the space telescope will help scientists more accurately calculate 2024 YR4’s size, what it’s made of, and the threat it poses.
First identified on December 27th, 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) located in Chile, trajectory calculations showed 2024 YR4 was on a potential collision course with Earth after a few weeks of observation.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in size and would impact the Earth with about 7.7 megatons of energy, according to Astronomy.com. That’s not powerful enough to wipe out humanity the same way an asteroid hit is believed to have done in the dinosaurs, but it’s more than enough energy to devastate a city with a direct hit.
Although the odds of the asteroid hitting the Earth have been dramatically reduced, NASA also says the new data has increased the chances of 2024 YR4 impacting the moon to one percent.
CNEOS’ Sentry page will be continuously updated with details on 2024 YR4’s latest impact probability.
