Planned U.S. Border Social Media Disclosure Requirements Could Impact Visitor Spending, Jobs

New research from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects that proposed changes to the U.S. ESTA program requiring expanded social media disclosures could reduce international visitor spending by up to USD $15.7 billion and affect up to 157,000 American jobs.

The World Travel & Tourism Council, in partnership with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, released findings from a multi-country survey of travelers from ESTA-eligible markets and from economic impact modeling. The research assessed potential effects on international arrivals, visitor spending, tourism-related GDP, and employment in the United States if the proposed policy is implemented.

Key findings from the research include:

– Two-thirds (66%) of survey respondents said they are familiar with the potential ESTA policy change.

– Around one-third (34%) of respondents indicated they would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the U.S. in the next two to three years if the changes are introduced.

– 12% of respondents said they would be more likely to visit under the proposed changes.

– A larger share of respondents said the policy would make the U.S. feel less welcoming and less attractive for both leisure and business travel.

– More respondents believe the policy would harm U.S. economic prosperity rather than strengthen it.

– A majority said the policy would either have no impact on their personal safety or make them feel less safe while traveling in the U.S.

The research compared perceptions of the proposed U.S. entry policy with those of other major destinations, including the UK, Japan, Canada, and Western Europe. The U.S. policy was viewed as significantly more intrusive, which the WTTC states could place the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage in the global tourism market.

WTTC’s economic modeling under a high-impact scenario projects the following:

– The U.S. could receive approximately 4.7 million fewer international arrivals, representing a 23.7% reduction from ESTA countries in 2026 compared to a business-as-usual baseline.

– Estimated losses in visitor spending could reach up to USD $15.7 billion.

– Wider Travel & Tourism GDP losses are projected at USD $21.5 billion.

– The employment impact could affect as many as 157,000 U.S. jobs.

The report notes that these projected job losses are equivalent to the number typically created in one quarter in the U.S. and are three times the average number of jobs created each month in 2025, referencing an average of 50,000 jobs created monthly in the previous year.

WTTC’s findings also indicate a loss of 11 million visitors to the U.S. between 2019 and 2025, noting that the proposed changes could further weaken inbound prospects for the U.S. travel sector and reduce travel-related exports.

The WTTC report concludes that the proposed ESTA policy changes carry a high risk of reducing travel demand and weakening the U.S. position in the global tourism market.