Year-end holiday travel is set to break records in 2025, with 122.4 million Americans projected to travel at least 50 miles from home between December 20 and January 1. This marks a 2.2% increase from 2024, driven by increased travel across all modes, including a record number of car and air travelers.
Projected Travel Surge
AAA forecasts that 122.4 million Americans will travel during the upcoming year-end holiday period, marking a 2.2% increase from the previous year. This surge is expected to set a new record, surpassing the 119.7 million travelers recorded in 2024. The travel period, spanning December 20 to January 1, includes family visits, vacations, and other holiday-related trips.
Travel by Car
Driving remains the preferred mode of transportation, with 109.5 million Americans projected to travel by car, a 2% increase from last year. This accounts for 89% of all holiday travelers, mainly due to the convenience and cost-effectiveness of road travel. Notably, gas prices have fallen below $3 per gallon for the first time in four years, which could encourage more road trips. AAA emphasizes the importance of road safety, especially during December, which is National Impaired Driving Prevention Month.
Air Travel Trends
Air travel is also expected to reach new heights, with 8.03 million Americans anticipated to fly domestically, a 2.3% increase from 2024. This marks the first time that domestic air travelers will exceed 8 million during the year-end period. However, travelers should be prepared for higher costs, as round-trip domestic flights are averaging nearly $900, a 7% increase from last year. The days leading up to Christmas are costly, while flights on the holiday itself are cheaper.
Other Modes of Transportation
Alternative travel modes, including buses, trains, and cruises, are projected to increase by 9%, to 4.9 million travelers. The demand for cruises, in particular, has surged by 25% since 2019, reflecting a strong post-pandemic recovery in this sector.
Top Travel Destinations
AAA’s booking data shows that travelers prefer warm destinations. Domestically, Florida, Southern California, and Hawaii are top choices, while internationally, Caribbean destinations and Mexican resort towns are popular. Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami lead the list of domestic destinations, while Cancun, Punta Cana, and Cozumel are the top international spots.
Traffic and Congestion Insights
According to INRIX, a transportation data provider, Christmas week is expected to be busier on the roads than New Year’s week. Major interstates will experience peak congestion on the weekend before Christmas. Travelers are advised to plan their trips to avoid peak periods; the lightest traffic typically occurs on Christmas and New Year’s Day.
Methodology and Data Sources
The travel forecasts are based on data from AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), which utilize economic variables such as employment and gasoline prices to predict travel volumes. Historical data from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM also contribute to these estimates. INRIX provides traffic forecasts using a combination of vehicle-based data, mobile apps, and infrastructure inputs.
Conclusion
The anticipated record-breaking travel figures for the 2025 year-end holiday period highlight a robust recovery in the travel industry. With significant increases in road and air travel, travelers are encouraged to plan, consider safety measures, and stay informed about potential traffic and congestion.
