The American Automobile Association (AAA) predicts an estimated 79.9 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home during the Thanksgiving holiday. The forecast includes the Tuesday before and the Monday after Thanksgiving to account for the full spectrum of holiday travel. The projected figure represents an increase of 1.7 million people from 2023 and 2 million more than in 2019.
Travel by car is expected to reach a record 71.7 million, an additional 1.3 million from last year. Compared to 2019, this year’s figure surpasses the previous 70.6 million people who drove to their Thanksgiving destinations. Lower gas prices compared to 2023, with a possible average of below $3 per gallon, could contribute to the rise in road travel. Rental car demand is exceptionally high in cities like Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix.
Air travel is also expected to set a new record, with 5.84 million people projected to fly domestically over Thanksgiving. This represents a 2% increase from 2023 and an 11% increase over 2019. Despite a 3% rise in domestic flight prices, flight bookings remain similar to last year. International flight bookings, however, have risen by 23%, partly due to a 5% decrease in international flight costs.
Other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains, are expected to be used by nearly 2.3 million people, marking an increase of almost 9% from 2023 and an 18% increase from 2019. This surge is attributed mainly to the popularity of cruises, with bookings up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving.
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, advises that the worst times to travel by car are Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, while the best time is Thanksgiving Day itself. Drivers returning home on Sunday should leave early in the morning, while those returning on Monday should expect a mix of travelers and work commuters.
According to AAA booking data, top domestic destinations for Thanksgiving include Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, New York, and Los Angeles. At the same time, international travelers prefer Budapest, Mexicali, San Juan, Cancun, and Punta Cana.
AAA uses a unique methodology developed with S&P Global Market Intelligence to forecast travel volumes. This involves leveraging data from various sources, including macroeconomic drivers, employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, such as gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays.
