Rosh Hashanah Calendar Shift Dampens U.S. Hotel Performance

The week ending September 27, 2025, saw a notable decline in the U.S. hotel industry’s revenue per available room (RevPAR), primarily influenced by the calendar shift of Rosh Hashanah. This decline was further exacerbated by a decrease in occupancy rates and average daily rates (ADR). The following analysis delves into the specifics of these changes and their broader implications for the hotel industry.

Impact of Rosh Hashanah on U.S. RevPAR

For the week in question, U.S. RevPAR dropped by 6.6%, driven by a 2.8 percentage point decline in occupancy and a 2.5% decrease in ADR. This marks the 14th consecutive week of declining occupancy, a trend not seen since the end of the pandemic. The calendar shift of Rosh Hashanah, which began on a Monday, played a significant role in this decline, with the largest RevPAR decreases occurring on Monday (-12.4%) and Tuesday (-11.4%). The weekend saw a slight improvement in ADR, but it was insufficient to offset the week’s overall losses.

Historical Context and Observance Impact

Rosh Hashanah, which started on a Monday, is a rare occurrence, having happened only four times since 2000. The RevPAR results this year were comparable to those during the Great Recession in 2008. Despite the absence of an economic recession, the impact was still profound, with the three-day observance period showing a RevPAR decline of 10.7%. This year’s absolute demand was the fourth-highest since 2000, indicating robust interest in travel despite the calendar challenges.

Top 25 Markets and Group Hotels

The Top 25 Markets in the U.S. experienced the most significant impact, with weekly RevPAR falling by 11.3%. This was largely due to a slowdown in business and group travel during the observance. Luxury and Upper Upscale hotels in these markets saw a 26% drop in group demand, contributing to an overall 19.4% decrease in group demand for the week. Notably, St. Louis and New York City were outliers, with New York benefiting from the U.N. General Assembly, which boosted ADR by 23%.

Global and Regional RevPAR Trends

Globally, RevPAR growth slowed to 2.6% from 5.6% the previous week, with negative occupancy comparisons from Sunday through Thursday. While ADR showed a modest increase, several major markets, including China, France, and Germany, experienced moderate declines in RevPAR due to falling occupancy. In contrast, Italy, Spain, and Japan reported strong gains. Canada’s performance was mixed, with larger markets experiencing flat to declining RevPAR.

Future Outlook

The shift in Rosh Hashanah observance significantly impacted U.S. RevPAR, with expectations for September to close with a more than 2% decline. Looking ahead, October is anticipated to perform better, as it is free from major calendar shifts and is conducive to group and business travel. However, the industry’s recovery will depend on various factors, including economic conditions and travel demand.

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