A worker dumps grapes from vines of the Champagne region in a bucket during a harvest at a vineyard in Hautvillers on Sept. 16, 2024. The U.S. is a major exporter of French Champagne, buying more than 27 million bottles in 2024.FRANCOIS NASCIMBENI/Getty Images
France’s Champagne producers are bracing for disruption as global trade tensions threaten their most important export destination: the United States. Already strained by climate change and slowing sales, producers warn that they have limited capacity to absorb new tariffs.
The temporary rate of 10 per cent is far from the 200 per cent that U.S. President Donald Trump originally floated for European wines, but the pressure is anything but lifted. The U.S. has postponed the higher tariffs until July 9, giving the European Union a chance to negotiate a trade deal. In the meantime, wine producers are holding their breath.
“Even with 10 per cent, I think the growth we’ve seen in the U.S. market over the past few years would come to a halt,” said Christine Sévillano, an independent winemaker in Vincelles. “Anything more would be catastrophic.”
As president of the Federation of Independent Winemakers of Champagne, Ms. Sévillano has been speaking with her peers about the tariffs every day since the announcement.
“The United States is our largest export market, and it’s a cause of concern right now,” she said. “We are caught in the middle of these trade negotiations and conflicts that we have no say in.”
For nearly two decades, France’s appetite for Champagne has declined, pushing producers to look abroad for growth. Export markets have become a lifeline, with the United States emerging as the world’s largest buyer. In 2024 alone, Americans purchased more than 27 million bottles.
New tariffs are causing concern among producers already struggling with plummeting sales at home and abroad. Last year, Champagne exports dropped more than 10 per cent. Industry group Comité Champagne attributed the sector’s worst year in more than two decades to inflation and economic instability.
In addition to slowing demand, last year brought a series of climate-related setbacks for Champagne producers. Heavy rains, mildew, frost and hail all damaged crops and disrupted production. Ms. Sévillano, who makes organic Champagne on her eight-acre winery, lost 60 per cent of her harvest because of poor weather.
Reeling from the past few years, independent winemakers have little capacity left to absorb the added burden of tariffs. “We’re already facing other constraints like weather and climate change,” Ms. Sévillano said. “Our financial capacity is already heavily impacted, even without factoring in trade conflicts.”
To sell their Champagne abroad, winemakers must work directly with importers based in each market. In Canada, where each province has its own liquor board, the workload is multiplied. As a result, expanding to new markets takes winemakers years and a steep upfront investment. “We can’t open up markets just for one or two years,” Ms. Sévillano said.
Instead, some producers have chosen to negotiate how to handle tariffs with their importers. Since Mr. Trump’s announcement, many U.S. importers have been asking winemakers to take on a portion of the added costs.
Jean-Baptiste Geoffroy is a third-generation winemaker in Aÿ, a region that is home to some of the legendary Champagne houses. The United States is his primary international market, where he sends up to 15,000 bottles each year. For now, he expects to split the 10-per-cent tariff on coming shipments evenly with his importer and distributor, each taking on roughly 3 per cent.
“The goal is to make sure that the bottle does not get more expensive and to dilute these costs across intermediaries,” he said. “We have to keep the market afloat.”
If demand tapers off, Mr. Geoffroy said, he is hopeful that other established markets, such as Scandinavia and Spain, will compensate for the shortfall. He also exports his Champagne to Canada, where prices and demand remain stable.
In the meantime, he’s urging U.S. importers to stock up in anticipation of potential tariff increases this summer. “If I receive an order for the United States, I can be ready to ship it within a week.”
Some U.S. importers have already begun stockpiling bottles. While advanced shipments can help delay the initial impact of the tariffs, they’re not a long-term solution. “Our partners in America have shipped some wine in advance, but they cannot finance and store it for too long,” said Bruno Paillard, the chief executive officer of Lanson-BCC, one of France’s largest Champagne groups.
“What is for sure is that prices will, at some stage, increase for the consumer.” Mr. Paillard said he expects the price of his Champagnes to increase by up to 18 per cent in the U.S. by the end of the year. “This will obviously impact sales,” he added.
Last year, the company’s eight brands generated more than half of their approximately $400-million revenue (€255-million) from exports. While the company is willing to cover a portion of tariffs on higher-end vintages, Mr. Paillard noted that it would be more challenging to do so on less expensive bottles, where margins are tighter.
Champagne has long been associated with luxury, but its high price tag isn’t just about prestige. Behind every bottle lies a complex and costly process for winemakers. Champagne grapes are some of the most expensive in the world, and nearly one entire vine is needed to produce just a single bottle.
From there, the journey from grape to glass involves labour-intensive and time-consuming techniques. Even the most affordable Champagne bottles must be stored in cellars for at least 15 months to get their appellation.
To deliver high volumes at an accessible price, mass-market producers must keep margins tight and productivity high. Manuel Janisson, the winemaker who has been behind Costco’s $29 Kirkland Champagne for the past 20 years, is well acquainted with the process.
To craft Kirkland Champagne, the fifth-generation winemaker blends grapes from his vineyards with purchased ones from regional growers. His bottles are shipped from the village of Verzenay to Costco stores across the United States and in Canadian provinces where the retailer is licensed to sell alcohol.
Kirkland Champagne’s accessible price point has helped keep Mr. Janisson’s production stable over the years, even as the industry started to slow. But now, he worries that tariffs could finally put the brakes on demand.
“It’s stressful, and even though we’re well-positioned on price, any increase could cause sales to drop,” he said. Costco did not respond to requests for comment on whether the price of its Kirkland Champagne will increase.
Mr. Janisson has not yet been asked to absorb any of the tariffs himself, and he says he simply wouldn’t be able to.
“We don’t have the margins necessary to pay for these tariffs,” he said. “When working with large retailers like Costco, we need to be very productive. So, of course, we don’t have the same margins as some other brands.”
His next order of Kirkland Champagne is due over the next few weeks, but he’s unsure how tariffs will affect it.
In the meantime, his children have joined him on the estate, preparing to take over as the next generation of winemakers in the family.
