The Twelve BIG Days of Christmas – learnings and observations from 2024

On the twelfth day of Christmas, my true love gave to me…

Twelve years of civil war ended…?

This year we finally saw the fall of Syria’s Assad regime, which had been sought my millions since Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 devolved into outright civil war by 2012. Russian and Iranian military, as well as disastrous diplomatic efforts, kept Assad in power despite devote opposition.  The advance of rebel group Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) took mere days to capture key cities and force government capitulation on December 8. The victory seemed surreal after years of fighting involving multiple rebel factions, rival ethnic and religious groups, and predatory outside powers. Although the brutal dictator is gone, time will tell if peace can be entrenched or if another phase of internal strife will begin.

Eleven (dialed to)

Regular readers of Dr. Joseph Fournier will know his extensive involvement in climate discussions online.  In his article Optimal holocene climate is in our rear-view mirror, Dr. Fournier reminds us that our climate has always been changing and provides glimpses of the past that may foretell our future.

Ten out of ten

Lee Hunt has tackled many philosophical and moral issues of the day. Although difficult to discuss in mixed company, these are usually issues we need to discuss more openly. In his work Overcoming stereotype threat and self-fulfilling prophecy, Lee outlines an objective study of stereotype threat and how to diffuse its effects.

Nine lives,

Coming back from electoral defeat, criminal conviction, and near assassination, Donald Trump stormed back into the US presidency, bringing a majority in the House and Senate along with him. We expect an unapologetic Republican agenda mixed with lots of chaos and social media posts.

Eight days a week of founders’ energy

The reflection of Grant Wilde on his success within a legacy business was a delight to read.  Despite challenging environments, there was shared encouragement and support for founders to carve out their direction, build market share, and reach financial success. The key ingredients of importance put on people, quality of product, and shared profits should resonate with any business. Grant reflects on this in his own words in the article Tapping founders’ energy for everyone’s good.

Seventh of October

The horrific attack on Israel by the terrorist entity Hamas and its allies in 2023 set in motion a regional war with Israel engaged on seven fronts. Despite internal strife, imperfect allies, and negative public opinion, Israel has survived through military might and creative intelligence operations. With the hobbling of Iran’s allies, we hope there will be some measure of reprieve and peace in the region for 2025.

Six hundred pages on pipe

The City of Calgary in Canada released a 596-page report on the engineering review and investigation into the water main failure of June 2024 as well as inspections and repairs that followed later in the year (Forensic Investigation into the Bearspaw South Feedermain Rupture). A number of failure mechanisms were observed and documented, including microcracking, chloride penetration of cement mortar, hydrogen embrittlement, and metal corrosion. The City is expected to announce further action plans in 2025. This author published two articles related to the pipe failures (Pipe problems – a detailed examination of what lies beneath us and Pipe problems continued – it hits home and the implications to my home city of Calgary and similar modern cities with aging infrastructure. Time will tell if budgets and actions meet the needs.

Five-star review

Brad Hayes took aim at some questionable publishing methods in his article Real science requires real peer review. At issue was use of the term “peer review” for a particular article that lacked impartiality and did not follow reasonable scientific methods in reaching conclusions. Without widespread standards, there is open dissemination of articles using poor or dubious methods. Public beware!

Four principles of energy transition

The developed world appears in a state of flux as the practicality of “quick fix” government energy policies are challenged by logistical, economic, and social realities. Brad Hayes addressed the merits of moderate, practical energy transition versus rapid, emotionally charged policies in his article Yes, there is an energy transition – and to manage it, we need to understand it.

Three nuclear power plants

Germany shut down the country’s last three operational nuclear power plants in April 2023, left its power generation more skewed to renewable power sources, including weather-dependent wind power. As we approach the end of 2024, the impact of these policy decisions is becoming clear.  Wind made up 20.7% of gross electricity generation in 2019 and increased to 26.8% in 2023. (Gross electricity production in Germany). Total renewables contribution went from 39.7% in 2019 to 52.0% in 2023. During this period, Germany has had a remarkable swing in electricity costs that saw 2023 year-end pricing of 0.4125 euro/kWh up from 0.3088 euro/kWh in 2019 (Germany – Electricity prices: Medium size households). Germany ranks among the most costly countries in the EU for electricity as its energy policies focus on intermittent renewables and move away from more reliable baseload sources, including low-emission nuclear power.

Two percent inflation

In the post-COVID run-up in costs for just about everything, there was public outcry on food prices. Setting aside sensational media reports and politically motivated accusations, food price inflation (and its anomalies) can be defined rationally and its factors explained. This author, along with co-contributor Liam Ostrowski, addressed the issues in Are groceries really that expensive?.

And a monster-sized data centre

The rise in computing capability and widespread AI applications are dramatically increasing the world’s need for power. Just this month, Kevin O’Leary announced the proposed Wonder Valley data centre in Alberta, Canada, which would scale up to a size requiring 7.5 GW of self-generated power sourced from regional natural gas.  This project is only one of several proposed or contemplated projects in North America that combine massive computing power with large power generation. BIG Media co-founder Laurie Weston recently addressed the data demand and power supply issues coming to light in her timely article, How AI is going to terminate us.