Tropical Storm Isaias live tracker: path, forecast, Florida state of emergencies

Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the southwestern Gulf and is expected to quickly strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the southern U.S. coast, potentially over the Florida Panhandle, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Isaias is forecast to become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and marks the latest start to the Atlantic hurricane season with a hurricane in the modern satellite era.

Tropical Storm Isaias: Path, spaghetti models

By the numbers:

Tropical Storm Isaias is 285 miles from Progreso, Mexico, and 580 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River. It has sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving east-northeast at 8 mph, according to the NHC’s 5 a.m. update.

“On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday,” the NHC said.

First hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?

Timeline:

Isaias is expected to rapidly intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday, becoming the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season. The storm is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday.

Storm surge and tornadoes will be possible along and just east of its track Friday night and Saturday, including within the Florida Panhandle.

Isaias is the ninth named storm of the season.

Could Isaias impact Florida?

What’s next:

According to the latest forecast, Tropical Storm Isaias could make landfall somewhere over the U.S. Southern Coast, potentially the Florida Panhandle. However, its exact path is unclear.

Tampa and Orlando are not within Isaias’ projected path – and are not expected to be directly impacted. However, the storm could increase rain chances, according to the FOX 35 Storm Team.

Florida State of Emergencies

Local perspective:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday declared a state of emergency for 25 counties: Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Walton, Wakulla, and Washington. 

Gov. DeSantis said the Florida State Emergency Response Team (SERT) is preparing resources in Tallahassee and Santa Rosa areas, including generators, fuel, flood barriers, box water pallets, shelf-stable meals, flood buckets, tarps, tiger dams, and sandbags.