Economic Sentiment and Recession Fears
Recent data from Future Partners shows that American travelers are less concerned about a potential recession than in previous months. The percentage of travelers expecting a U.S. recession in the next six months dropped to 47.5%, down 4.4 percentage points from the previous month and 9.4 points year-over-year. Financial sentiment has stabilized: 33.2% of respondents say their household is better off compared to a year ago, while 24.0% feel worse off, a figure that has remained relatively flat. Forward-looking optimism is also steady, with 44.3% expecting their financial situation to improve in the next year.
Despite the start of U.S. military operations in Iran earlier this year, travel remains a budget priority for many households. The willingness to allocate resources for leisure travel remains strong, as evidenced by stable or increasing travel budgets and intent.
Travel Spending and Cost Concerns
A significant portion of American travelers (34.2%) believe now is a good time to spend on travel, a figure unchanged from last month and higher than the same period last year. Leisure travel ranks as a high spending priority for 62.2% of respondents, a slight increase from previous months.
The average maximum annual leisure travel budget in April 2026 was $6,429. While this is slightly lower than the March figure of $6,630, it is 18.7% higher than the same time last year, indicating sustained growth in travel spending.
However, rising transportation costs are becoming a major deterrent. The share of travelers citing high gas prices as a reason to avoid travel increased from 12.0% in February to 26.4% in April, a 14.4-percentage-point rise in two months. Concerns about airfare have also grown, with 32.4% now viewing high ticket prices as a deterrent, up 4.5 points since February and 7.2 points year-over-year.
Travel Volume and Patterns
Travel activity remains robust compared with last year, even as it shows a slight decline from the previous month. In April, 52.1% of American travelers reported taking an overnight leisure trip in the past month, down from 53.9% in March but significantly higher than the 44.5% recorded a year earlier. Overnight trips to visit friends and relatives were reported by 44.5% of respondents, and leisure day trips by 51.4%. These figures are slightly down month-over-month but up compared to last year.
Looking ahead, Americans expect to take an average of four leisure trips over the next 12 months, consistent with March projections and higher than last year’s average of 3.7 trips. Higher-income households anticipate more travel, with those earning $200,000 or more planning an average of 4.9 trips, compared to 3.0 trips for those earning under $50,000. Parents of school-aged children also expect to travel more than non-parents.
Summer Outlook and Travel Priorities
Excitement for leisure travel remains high, with an average enthusiasm score of 8.2 out of 10. Over 42% of travelers rated their excitement at the maximum level. The peak summer months are expected to see the most activity, with 36.8% of respondents having trips planned for July, followed by June (34.0%), May (30.2%), and August (29.8%). Plans extend into the fall, with about a quarter of travelers planning trips in September and October.
Most travelers (83.4%) expect to travel as much or more over the next year as they did in the past year. Spending expectations are similar, with 30.8% planning to spend more on leisure travel and only 16.7% expecting to spend less. Notably, nearly 60% agree that travel remains a worthwhile investment, even during economic uncertainty.
FIFA World Cup and Digital Travel Planning
Interest in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is rising as the event approaches. In the latest survey, 29.1% of American travelers expressed interest in attending World Cup events, up 5.6 points since February. Interest is particularly high among Millennials (47%), urban residents (49.7%), parents of school-aged children (50%), Latino/Hispanic travelers (47.2%), and Black/African American travelers (45.9%).
Travelers interested in the World Cup are more likely to use social media (70.4% vs. 54.4% of all travelers) and AI tools (44.8% vs. 27.6%) for trip planning. This trend is especially pronounced among Millennials. The use of digital influencers for travel planning has also increased, rising from 17.3% a year ago to 23.8% this month.
Destination preferences for World Cup travel are influenced by regional proximity. For example, travelers in the West are more likely to visit Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Seattle, while those in the Northeast prefer New York City, and Southern residents favor Miami and Dallas.
Route 66 Centennial Interest
Interest in Route 66 Centennial travel remains steady at 46.8%. Unlike the World Cup, Route 66 appeals across generations, with interest ranging from 43.8% among Boomers to 49.9% among Millennials. Parents of school-aged children (55.9%) and high-income travelers (52.1%) show particularly strong interest. California, Arizona, and Texas are the top states of interest for Route 66 trips.
Conclusion and Outlook
In summary, American travelers remain committed to leisure travel as summer approaches, despite rising transportation costs. Recession fears have lessened, and both travel budgets and trip intent remain high. The FIFA World Cup and Route 66 Centennial are driving specific travel interest, particularly among digitally engaged and higher-income groups. However, the increasing cost of gas and airfare may influence travel decisions in the coming months.
